IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v16y2025i1d10.1038_s41467-025-57913-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monitoring, modeling, and forecasting long-term changes in coastal seawater quality due to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Xianghong Guan

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Hua Huang

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Xiong Ke

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Xiaoqian Cheng

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Heng Zhang

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Acong Chen

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Guanglei Qiu

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Haizhen Wu

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Chaohai Wei

    (South China University of Technology
    South China University of Technology)

Abstract

As climate change affects the physicochemical properties of coastal water, the resulting element re-exposure may override the emission reductions achieved by human pollution control efforts. Here, we conduct an analysis the water quality-climate effect over eight consecutive years from 2015 to 2022 along the South China coast combined with CMIP6 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project. Then we utilized a data-driven model to predict the concentrations of trace metals and nutrients over the next 80 years. It is suggested that the acidification process carries the risk of triggering the ocean’s buffering mechanisms. During this alkalinity replenishment process, trace metals, such as Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Pb, and Zn, in the sediment are released into the water phase, along with Ca2+ and Mg2+. Here, the aim of this study is to show that the nexus of re-exposure-eutrophication-emission reduction with human activities and climate feedback, cannot be ignored in the pursuit of effective environmental governance.

Suggested Citation

  • Xianghong Guan & Hua Huang & Xiong Ke & Xiaoqian Cheng & Heng Zhang & Acong Chen & Guanglei Qiu & Haizhen Wu & Chaohai Wei, 2025. "Monitoring, modeling, and forecasting long-term changes in coastal seawater quality due to climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-57913-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57913-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-57913-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-025-57913-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Bauer & Wei-Jun Cai & Peter A. Raymond & Thomas S. Bianchi & Charles S. Hopkinson & Pierre A. G. Regnier, 2013. "The changing carbon cycle of the coastal ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 504(7478), pages 61-70, December.
    2. Lavenia Ratnarajah & Rana Abu-Alhaija & Angus Atkinson & Sonia Batten & Nicholas J. Bax & Kim S. Bernard & Gabrielle Canonico & Astrid Cornils & Jason D. Everett & Maria Grigoratou & Nurul Huda Ahmad , 2023. "Monitoring and modelling marine zooplankton in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Jan Taucher & Tim Boxhammer & Lennart T. Bach & Allanah J. Paul & Markus Schartau & Paul Stange & Ulf Riebesell, 2021. "Changing carbon-to-nitrogen ratios of organic-matter export under ocean acidification," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 52-57, January.
    4. Yanhui Dai & Shangbo Yang & Dan Zhao & Chuanmin Hu & Wang Xu & Donald M. Anderson & Yun Li & Xiao-Peng Song & Daniel G. Boyce & Luke Gibson & Chunmiao Zheng & Lian Feng, 2023. "Coastal phytoplankton blooms expand and intensify in the 21st century," Nature, Nature, vol. 615(7951), pages 280-284, March.
    5. Martin Jiskra & Lars-Eric Heimbürger-Boavida & Marie-Maëlle Desgranges & Mariia V. Petrova & Aurélie Dufour & Beatriz Ferreira-Araujo & Jérémy Masbou & Jérôme Chmeleff & Melilotus Thyssen & David Poin, 2021. "Mercury stable isotopes constrain atmospheric sources to the ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 597(7878), pages 678-682, September.
    6. Nicolas Gruber, 2015. "Carbon at the coastal interface," Nature, Nature, vol. 517(7533), pages 148-149, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabian Quichimbo-Miguitama & David Matamoros & Leticia Jiménez & Pablo Quichimbo-Miguitama, 2022. "Influence of Low-Impact Development in Flood Control: A Case Study of the Febres Cordero Stormwater System of Guayaquil (Ecuador)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Cossarini, G. & Querin, S. & Solidoro, C., 2015. "The continental shelf carbon pump in the northern Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea): Influence of wintertime variability," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 314(C), pages 118-134.
    3. Katrina L Poppe & John M Rybczyk, 2021. "Tidal marsh restoration enhances sediment accretion and carbon accumulation in the Stillaguamish River estuary, Washington," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Luisetti, Tiziana & Turner, R. Kerry & Andrews, Julian E. & Jickells, Timothy D. & Kröger, Silke & Diesing, Markus & Paltriguera, Lucille & Johnson, Martin T. & Parker, Eleanor R. & Bakker, Dorothee C, 2019. "Quantifying and valuing carbon flows and stores in coastal and shelf ecosystems in the UK," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 67-76.
    5. Chengzhen Zhou & Maodian Liu & Robert P. Mason & Prakhin Assavapanuvat & Nikki H. Zhang & Thomas S. Bianchi & Qianru Zhang & Xiaolong Li & Ruoyu Sun & Jiubin Chen & Xuejun Wang & Peter A. Raymond, 2025. "Warming-induced retreat of West Antarctic glaciers weakened carbon sequestration ability but increased mercury enrichment," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Jiang, Long & Xia, Meng, 2017. "Wind effects on the spring phytoplankton dynamics in the middle reach of the Chesapeake Bay," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 363(C), pages 68-80.
    7. Wei-Jen Huang & Kai-Jung Kao & Li-Lian Liu & Chi-Wen Liao & Yin-Lung Han, 2018. "An Assessment of Direct Dissolved Inorganic Carbon Injection to the Coastal Region: A Model Result," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-10, April.
    8. Hao Su & Shuo Yang, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Urban Land Green Use Efficiency under Carbon Emission Constraints in the Yellow River Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-28, October.
    9. Dong Liu & Kun Shi & Peng Chen & Nuoxiao Yan & Lishan Ran & Tiit Kutser & Andrew N. Tyler & Evangelos Spyrakos & R. Iestyn Woolway & Yunlin Zhang & Hongtao Duan, 2024. "Substantial increase of organic carbon storage in Chinese lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    10. Liao, Tiancai, 2024. "The impact of temperature variation on the algae–zooplankton dynamics with size-selective disturbance," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    11. Tom Rippeth & Sijing Shen & Ben Lincoln & Brian Scannell & Xin Meng & Joanne Hopkins & Jonathan Sharples, 2024. "The deepwater oxygen deficit in stratified shallow seas is mediated by diapycnal mixing," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    12. KHAN Shohel & MOUSUMI Israth Jahan & BILLAH Mohammad Maruf, 2022. "Crop Production Fluctuation And Agricultural Transformation: Impacts Of Constructing A Closure Dam," Management of Sustainable Development, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 14(1), pages 30-35, June.
    13. Liang Chen & Zhengxin Yin & Meng Tang & Tuanjie Li & Dong Xu, 2022. "Distribution and Genesis of Organic Carbon Storage on the Northern Shelf of the South China Sea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-15, September.
    14. Feng, Jing-Chun & Sun, Liwei & Yan, Jinyue, 2023. "Carbon sequestration via shellfish farming: A potential negative emissions technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    15. Shasha Song & Isaac R. Santos & Huaming Yu & Faming Wang & William C. Burnett & Thomas S. Bianchi & Junyu Dong & Ergang Lian & Bin Zhao & Lawrence Mayer & Qingzhen Yao & Zhigang Yu & Bochao Xu, 2022. "A global assessment of the mixed layer in coastal sediments and implications for carbon storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Miho Ishizu & Yasumasa Miyazawa & Tomohiko Tsunoda & Xinyu Guo, 2019. "Development of a Biogeochemical and Carbon Model Related to Ocean Acidification Indices with an Operational Ocean Model Product in the North Western Pacific," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-28, May.
    17. Chuxian Li & Martin Jiskra & Mats B. Nilsson & Stefan Osterwalder & Wei Zhu & Dmitri Mauquoy & Ulf Skyllberg & Maxime Enrico & Haijun Peng & Yu Song & Erik Björn & Kevin Bishop, 2023. "Mercury deposition and redox transformation processes in peatland constrained by mercury stable isotopes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    18. Kunshan Bao & Ji Shen & Guoping Wang & Chuanyu Gao, 2015. "Anthropogenic Black Carbon Emission Increase during the Last 150 Years at Coastal Jiangsu, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, July.
    19. Xinyu Hao & Xiaohong Shi & Shengnan Zhao & Haifeng Yu & Ruli Kang & Yue Han & Yue Sun & Shihuan Wang, 2024. "Impacts of Temperature and Nutrient Dynamics on Phytoplankton in a Lake: A Case Study of Wuliangsuhai Lake, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-15, December.
    20. Jiang Wu & Nan Xu & Yichu Wang & Wei Zhang & Alistair G. L. Borthwick & Jinren Ni, 2021. "Global syndromes induced by changes in solutes of the world’s large rivers," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-57913-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.