IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v14y2023i1d10.1038_s41467-023-43463-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Middle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Baosheng Li

    (Ministry of Natural Resources
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai))

  • Lei Zhou

    (Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
    Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • Jianhuang Qin

    (Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
    Hohai University)

  • Tianjun Zhou

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Dake Chen

    (Ministry of Natural Resources
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
    Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • Shugui Hou

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • Raghu Murtugudde

    (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay
    University of Maryland)

Abstract

The edge of a monsoon region is usually highly sensitive to climate change. Pakistan, which is located on the northern edge of the Indian monsoon, is highly vulnerable to heavy rainfall and has witnessed several debilitating floods exacerbated by global warming in recent years. However, the mechanisms for the frequent Pakistan floods are yet not fully understood. Here, we show that the Middle East is undergoing an increase in land heating during spring, which is responsible for 46% of the intensified rainfall over Pakistan and northwestern India during 1979–2022. This springtime land warming causes a decline in sea level pressure (SLP), which strengthens the meridional SLP gradient between the Middle East and the southern Arabian Sea and drives the changes of low-level jet (LLJ) subsequently. The impact persists into summer and results in a northward shift of the monsoonal LLJ, accompanied by strong positive vorticity in the atmosphere and enhanced moisture supply to Pakistan. Consequently, the transition region between the summer monsoon in South Asia and the desert climate in West Asia is shifted northwestward, posing significantly enhanced risk of floods over Pakistan and northwestern India.

Suggested Citation

  • Baosheng Li & Lei Zhou & Jianhuang Qin & Tianjun Zhou & Dake Chen & Shugui Hou & Raghu Murtugudde, 2023. "Middle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-43463-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43463-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43463-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-43463-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolfgang Cramer & Joël Guiot & Marianela Fader & Joaquim Garrabou & Jean-Pierre Gattuso & Ana Iglesias & Manfred A. Lange & Piero Lionello & Maria Carmen Llasat & Shlomit Paz & Josep Peñuelas & Maria , 2018. "Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(11), pages 972-980, November.
    2. B. Tellman & J. A. Sullivan & C. Kuhn & A. J. Kettner & C. S. Doyle & G. R. Brakenridge & T. A. Erickson & D. A. Slayback, 2021. "Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods," Nature, Nature, vol. 596(7870), pages 80-86, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 2020. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899, May.
    2. David Hidalgo García, 2023. "Evaluation and Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Main Mitigation Measures against Surface Urban Heat Islands in Different Local Climate Zones through Remote Sensing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra & Ameztegui, Aitor & De Cáceres, Miquel & de-Miguel, Sergio & Lefèvre, François & Brotons, Lluís & Coll, Lluís, 2020. "Future trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services in Mediterranean forests under global change scenarios," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    4. Heider, Katharina & Quaranta, Emanuele & García Avilés, José María & Rodriguez Lopez, Juan Miguel & Balbo, Andrea L. & Scheffran, Jürgen, 2022. "Reinventing the wheel – The preservation and potential of traditional water wheels in the terraced irrigated landscapes of the Ricote Valley, southeast Spain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    5. Aina Maimó-Far & Alexis Tantet & Víctor Homar & Philippe Drobinski, 2020. "Predictable and Unpredictable Climate Variability Impacts on Optimal Renewable Energy Mixes: The Example of Spain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-25, October.
    6. Caroline Taylor & Tom R. Robinson & Stuart Dunning & J. Rachel Carr & Matthew Westoby, 2023. "Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Cheng He & Yixiang Zhu & Lu Zhou & Jovine Bachwenkizi & Alexandra Schneider & Renjie Chen & Haidong Kan, 2024. "Flood exposure and pregnancy loss in 33 developing countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Yanting Zheng & Jing He & Wenxiang Zhang & Aifeng Lv, 2023. "Assessing Water Security and Coupling Coordination in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin for Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-20, December.
    9. Susana Toboso‐Chavero & Gara Villalba & Xavier Gabarrell Durany & Cristina Madrid‐López, 2021. "More than the sum of the parts: System analysis of the usability of roofs in housing estates," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(5), pages 1284-1299, October.
    10. Manoranjan Ghosh & Somnath Ghosal, 2021. "Climate change vulnerability of rural households in flood-prone areas of Himalayan foothills, West Bengal, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 2570-2595, February.
    11. Sugenith Arteaga & Lourdes Yabor & José Torres & Eva Solbes & Enrique Muñoz & María José Díez & Oscar Vicente & Monica Boscaiu, 2019. "Morphological and Agronomic Characterization of Spanish Landraces of Phaseolus vulgaris L," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-16, July.
    12. Cécile Hérivaux & Philippe Le Coent, 2021. "Introducing Nature into Cities or Preserving Existing Peri-Urban Ecosystems? Analysis of Preferences in a Rapidly Urbanizing Catchment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-34, January.
    13. Zagaria, Cecilia & Schulp, Catharina J.E. & Malek, Žiga & Verburg, Peter H., 2023. "Potential for land and water management adaptations in Mediterranean croplands under climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    14. Sergio Gil-Lebrero & Francisco Javier Navas González & Victoria Gámiz López & Francisco Javier Quiles Latorre & José Manuel Flores Serrano, 2020. "Regulation of Microclimatic Conditions inside Native Beehives and Its Relationship with Climate in Southern Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-25, August.
    15. Pallavi Tomar & Suraj Kumar Singh & Shruti Kanga & Gowhar Meraj & Nikola Kranjčić & Bojan Đurin & Amitanshu Pattanaik, 2021. "GIS-Based Urban Flood Risk Assessment and Management—A Case Study of Delhi National Capital Territory (NCT), India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-20, November.
    16. Hanan Ali Alrteimei & Zulfa Hanan Ash’aari & Farrah Melissa Muharram, 2022. "Last Decade Assessment of the Impacts of Regional Climate Change on Crop Yield Variations in the Mediterranean Region," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-21, October.
    17. Hadi Sarvari & Mansooreh Rakhshanifar & Jolanta Tamošaitienė & Daniel W.M. Chan & Michael Beer, 2019. "A Risk Based Approach to Evaluating the Impacts of Zayanderood Drought on Sustainable Development Indicators of Riverside Urban in Isfahan-Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-20, November.
    18. Farahmand, Shekoofeh & Hilmi, Nathalie & Cinar, Mine & Safa, Alain & Lam, Vicky W.Y. & Djoundourian, Salpie & Shahin, Wassim & Ben Lamine, Emna & Schickele, Alexandre & Guidetti, Paolo & Allemand, Den, 2023. "Climate change impacts on Mediterranean fisheries: A sensitivity and vulnerability analysis for main commercial species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    19. Changchun Peng & Zhijun Xie & Xing Jin, 2024. "Using Ensemble Learning for Remote Sensing Inversion of Water Quality Parameters in Poyang Lake," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-19, April.
    20. Dolores Tirado & William Nilsson & Bartolomé Deyà-Tortella & Celso García, 2019. "Implementation of Water-Saving Measures in Hotels in Mallorca," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-13, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-43463-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.