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Clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Krishna P. Reddy

    (Massachusetts General Hospital
    Massachusetts General Hospital
    Harvard Medical School)

  • Kieran P. Fitzmaurice

    (Massachusetts General Hospital)

  • Justine A. Scott

    (Massachusetts General Hospital)

  • Guy Harling

    (Africa Health Research Institute
    University of the Witwatersrand
    University of KwaZulu-Natal
    University College London)

  • Richard J. Lessells

    (University of KwaZulu-Natal)

  • Christopher Panella

    (Massachusetts General Hospital)

  • Fatma M. Shebl

    (Massachusetts General Hospital
    Harvard Medical School)

  • Kenneth A. Freedberg

    (Massachusetts General Hospital
    Harvard Medical School
    Massachusetts General Hospital
    Massachusetts General Hospital)

  • Mark J. Siedner

    (Massachusetts General Hospital
    Harvard Medical School
    Africa Health Research Institute
    Massachusetts General Hospital)

Abstract

Low- and middle-income countries are implementing COVID-19 vaccination strategies in light of varying vaccine efficacies and costs, supply shortages, and resource constraints. Here, we use a microsimulation model to evaluate clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccination program in South Africa. We varied vaccination coverage, pace, acceptance, effectiveness, and cost as well as epidemic dynamics. Providing vaccines to at least 40% of the population and prioritizing vaccine rollout prevented >9 million infections and >73,000 deaths and reduced costs due to fewer hospitalizations. Model results were most sensitive to assumptions about epidemic growth and prevalence of prior immunity to SARS-CoV-2, though the vaccination program still provided high value and decreased both deaths and health care costs across a wide range of assumptions. Vaccination program implementation factors, including prompt procurement, distribution, and rollout, are likely more influential than characteristics of the vaccine itself in maximizing public health benefits and economic efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Krishna P. Reddy & Kieran P. Fitzmaurice & Justine A. Scott & Guy Harling & Richard J. Lessells & Christopher Panella & Fatma M. Shebl & Kenneth A. Freedberg & Mark J. Siedner, 2021. "Clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in South Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26557-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26557-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beate Jahn & Sarah Friedrich & Joachim Behnke & Joachim Engel & Ursula Garczarek & Ralf Münnich & Markus Pauly & Adalbert Wilhelm & Olaf Wolkenhauer & Markus Zwick & Uwe Siebert & Tim Friede, 2022. "On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(3), pages 349-382, September.

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