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African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates

Author

Listed:
  • Michalis I. Vousdoukas

    (European Commission)

  • Joanne Clarke

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Roshanka Ranasinghe

    (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
    University of Twente
    Deltares)

  • Lena Reimann

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Nadia Khalaf

    (University of Exeter)

  • Trang Minh Duong

    (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
    University of Twente
    Deltares)

  • Birgitt Ouweneel

    (University of Cape Town)

  • Salma Sabour

    (University of Southampton)

  • Carley E. Iles

    (Center for International Climate Research
    Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Christopher H. Trisos

    (University of Cape Town
    University of Cape Town)

  • Luc Feyen

    (European Commission)

  • Lorenzo Mentaschi

    (University of Bologna)

  • Nicholas P. Simpson

    (University of Cape Town)

Abstract

The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Michalis I. Vousdoukas & Joanne Clarke & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Lena Reimann & Nadia Khalaf & Trang Minh Duong & Birgitt Ouweneel & Salma Sabour & Carley E. Iles & Christopher H. Trisos & Luc Feyen & L, 2022. "African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 256-262, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01280-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1
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    2. Zakari, Abdulrasheed & Khan, Irfan & Tawiah, Vincent & Alvarado, Rafael & Li, Guo, 2022. "The production and consumption of oil in Africa: The environmental implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Nawin Raj, 2022. "Prediction of Sea Level with Vertical Land Movement Correction Using Deep Learning," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-23, November.
    4. John E. Gordon, 2023. "Climate Change and Geotourism: Impacts, Challenges, and Opportunities," Tourism and Hospitality, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-25, September.

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