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Climate change risk to global port operations

Author

Listed:
  • C. Izaguirre

    (IHCantabria-Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria)

  • I. J. Losada

    (IHCantabria-Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria)

  • P. Camus

    (IHCantabria-Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria)

  • J. L. Vigh

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

  • V. Stenek

    (International Finance Corporation (IFC), World Bank Group)

Abstract

The ports sector is critical to global transport and trade. Climate change may compromise port operations, resulting in an increase in operational shutdowns and subsequent economic losses. Here, we present an analysis of historical global risk across the operations of 2,013 ports worldwide and the impacts under a high-end warming scenario, considering atmospheric and marine hazards, industry established operational thresholds, exposure and vulnerability. Increased coastal flooding and overtopping due to sea level rise, as well as the heat stress impacts of higher temperatures, are the main contributors to amplified risk. Ports located in the Pacific Islands, Caribbean Sea and Indian Ocean appear to be at extremely high risk by 2100, whereas those in the African Mediterranean and the Arabian Peninsula (Persian Gulf and Red Sea) are expected to experience very high risk. Estimating risks at the global scale cannot capture site-level details, but these results provide a benchmark for further research and decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Izaguirre & I. J. Losada & P. Camus & J. L. Vigh & V. Stenek, 2021. "Climate change risk to global port operations," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 14-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00937-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00937-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Jasper Verschuur & Raghav Pant & Elco Koks & Jim Hall, 2022. "A systemic risk framework to improve the resilience of port and supply-chain networks to natural hazards," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 24(3), pages 489-506, September.
    2. Natalia Wagner & Izabela Kotowska & Michał Pluciński, 2022. "The Impact of Improving the Quality of the Port’s Infrastructure on the Shippers’ Decisions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-22, May.
    3. Lena I. Fuldauer & Scott Thacker & Robyn A. Haggis & Francesco Fuso-Nerini & Robert J. Nicholls & Jim W. Hall, 2022. "Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Gaoru Zhu & Zhenglei Xie & Honglei Xu & Minxuan Liang & Jinxiang Cheng & Yujian Gao & Liguo Zhang, 2021. "Land reclamation pattern and environmental regulation guidelines for port clusters in the Bohai Sea, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-20, November.
    5. Pinto, Miguel & Albo-Puigserver, Marta & Bueno-Pardo, Juan & Monteiro, João Nuno & Teodósio, Maria Alexandra & Leitão, Francisco, 2023. "Eco-socio-economic vulnerability assessment of Portuguese fisheries to climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    6. Susana Lincoln & Paul Buckley & Ella L. Howes & Katherine M. Maltby & John K. Pinnegar & Thamer S. Ali & Yousef Alosairi & Alanoud Al-Ragum & Alastair Baglee & Chiden Oseo Balmes & Radhouane Ben Hamad, 2021. "A Regional Review of Marine and Coastal Impacts of Climate Change on the ROPME Sea Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-34, December.
    7. Maria Fabrizia Clemente, 2022. "The Future Impacts of ESL Events in Euro-Mediterranean Coastal Cities: The Coast-RiskBySea Model to Assess the Potential Economic Damages in Naples, Marseille and Barcelona," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-22, August.

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