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Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung: Prognosen im Vergleich

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  • Hans-Werner Sinn
  • Marcel Thum

Abstract

How will the contribution rates to the German social security system develop over the next 40 years? While some observers predict only a minor increase from 21 percent today to 24 percent in 2040, others foresee a dramatic increase - to levels even above 30 percent. Using the the reports of the Sozialbeirat (social council), the Prognos AG and the Council of Economic Advisors of the Ministry of Economics (CES forecast), we show where the major differences between 'optimistic' and 'pessimistic' projections can be found. A large part of this difference in the predicted contribution rates is due to the varying assumptions made about the future development of the tax system and the rest of the social insurance system. Calculating the total burden on labor income we show that the seemingly optimistic predictions of the Sozialbeirat and the Prognos AG are truly pessimistic scenarios. The total burden on labor income imposed by taxes and social insurance contributions is much higher in theses scenarios than in the projection of the Council of Economic Advisors.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn & Marcel Thum, 1999. "Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung: Prognosen im Vergleich," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 56(1), pages 104-140, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(199903)56:1_104:grpiv_2.0.tx_2-f
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    Cited by:

    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Silke Übelmesser, 2000. "Wann kippt Deutschland um?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(28-29), pages 20-25, November.
    2. Axel Boersch-Supan & Florian Heiss & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2003. "Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(2), pages 151-181, May.
    3. Christoph Borgmann & Matthias Heidler, 2003. "Demographics and Volatile Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit Rule Changes in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 1021, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Kai A. Konrad & Gert Wagner, 2000. "Reform of the Public Pension System in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 200, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2004. "Ageing and the tax implied in public pension schemes: simulations for selected OECD countries," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 159-200, June.
    6. Marcel Thum & Jakob von Weisäcker, 2000. "Implizite Einkommensteuer als Messlatte für die aktuellen Rentenreformvorschläge," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(4), pages 453-468, November.
    7. Hans-Werner Sinn & Silke Uebelmesser, 2001. "When Will the Germans Get Trapped in their Pension System?," NBER Working Papers 8503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bonin, Holger, 2001. "Will it Last? An Assessment of the 2001 German Pension Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 343, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Weller, Christian E., 2001. "Programs without alternative: Public pensions in the OECD," ZEI Working Papers B 15-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    10. Uebelmesser Silke, 2004. "Political Feasibility of Pension Reforms," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, September.
    11. Robert Fenge & Silke Uebelmesser & Martin Werding, 2006. "On the Optimal Timing of Implicit Social Security Taxes Over the Life Cycle," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 62(1), pages 68-107, March.

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