Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung: Prognosen im Vergleich
How will the contribution rates to the German social security system develop over the next 40 years? While some observers predict only a minor increase from 21 percent today to 24 percent in 2040, others foresee a dramatic increase - to levels even above 30 percent. Using the the reports of the Sozialbeirat (social council), the Prognos AG and the Council of Economic Advisors of the Ministry of Economics (CES forecast), we show where the major differences between 'optimistic' and 'pessimistic' projections can be found. A large part of this difference in the predicted contribution rates is due to the varying assumptions made about the future development of the tax system and the rest of the social insurance system. Calculating the total burden on labor income we show that the seemingly optimistic predictions of the Sozialbeirat and the Prognos AG are truly pessimistic scenarios. The total burden on labor income imposed by taxes and social insurance contributions is much higher in theses scenarios than in the projection of the Council of Economic Advisors.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Volume (Year): 56 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.mohr.de/fa|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Mohr Siebeck GmbH & Co. KG, P.O.Box 2040, 72010 Tübingen, Germany|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(199903)56:1_104:grpiv_2.0.tx_2-f. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Wolpert)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.