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Conditional Risk Premia in International Government Bond Markets

Author

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  • Joelle Miffre

    (EDHEC Business School, France)

Abstract

The paper estimates conditional pricing models for 11 international government bonds and shows that, while local instruments capture the change in the bonds’ risks, global instruments model the variation in the factor risk premia. Altogether the changes in the factor risk premium capture 78.25% of the bonds’ predictability, while the dynamics in the betas account for less than 1%. One cannot conclude however that the conditional models are well-specified as parameter instability and relatively large mean squared errors were uncovered. These results extend for the first time some of the evidence from the equity market of Ferson and Harvey (1993), Harvey (1995) and Ghysels (1998) to the bond market.

Suggested Citation

  • Joelle Miffre, 2008. "Conditional Risk Premia in International Government Bond Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(3-4), pages 185-204, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:12:y:2008:i:3-4:p:185-204
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international government bonds; conditional asset pricing models; variance ratio; mean squared errors; parameter stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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