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Normal backwardation is normal

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  • Joëlle Miffre

Abstract

Traditionally, constant expected return asset pricing models are used to assess the presence of a futures risk premium and the validity of the normal backwardation theory. In the light of recent evidence regarding the presence of time variation in expected futures returns, such an approach may lead to incorrect inferences on the applicability of the Keynesian hypothesis. This article therefore allows for variation through time in expected futures returns and offers some strong evidence in favor of the normal backwardation and contango theories. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:803–821, 2000

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  • Joëlle Miffre, 2000. "Normal backwardation is normal," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(9), pages 803-821, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:20:y:2000:i:9:p:803-821
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    Cited by:

    1. Joëlle Miffre, 2004. "The Conditional Price of Basis Risk: An Investigation Using Foreign Exchange Instruments," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(7‐8), pages 1043-1068, September.
    2. Joelle Miffre, 2008. "Conditional Risk Premia in International Government Bond Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(3-4), pages 185-204, September.
    3. Röthig, Andreas, 2008. "The Impact of Backwardation on Hedgers' Demand for Currency Futures Contracts: Theory versus Empirical Evidence," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35698, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    4. Seungho Baek & Mina Glambosky & Seok Hee Oh & Jeong Lee, 2020. "Machine Learning and Algorithmic Pairs Trading in Futures Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    5. Röthig, Andreas, 2008. "The impact of backwardation on hedgers' demand for currency futures contracts: theory versus empirical evidence," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 190, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    6. Joëlle Miffre, 2004. "The Conditional Price of Basis Risk: An Investigation Using Foreign Exchange Instruments," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(7-8), pages 1043-1068.
    7. Cifuentes, Sebastián & Cortazar, Gonzalo & Ortega, Hector & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2020. "Expected prices, futures prices and time-varying risk premiums: The case of copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Thomas Bollinger & Axel Kind, 2015. "Risk Premiums in the Cross-Section of Commodity Convenience Yields," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-17, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    9. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, December.

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