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Commodity Prices and Stock Market Behavior in South American Countries in the Short Run

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  • Robert Johnson
  • Luc Soenen

Abstract

Using Geweke feedback measures, we present empirical evidence that largely supports the hypothesis that the stock markets of South American countries are highly affected by changes in commodity prices after controlling for changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and North American stock market changes. In total, six different Goldman Sachs commodity price indexes are tested against the unexplained variation in stock market returns for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela, covering the period 1995-2007. The Argentinian, Brazilian, and Peruvian stock markets are significantly affected by changes in commodity prices the same day. Venezuela's stock market, however, does not react to changes in commodity prices, even including energy prices. Stock market returns for Chile show a contemporaneous relation with energy and metals prices, whereas Colombia's equity market is affected by price changes for agricultural and industrial metals. In all cases, we find a contemporaneous relation and no indication of a lead or lag relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Johnson & Luc Soenen, 2009. "Commodity Prices and Stock Market Behavior in South American Countries in the Short Run," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 69-82, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:45:y:2009:i:4:p:69-82
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald. A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2017. "Global commodity prices and global stock volatility shocks: effects across countries," Working Papers 2017-05, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    2. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2018. "On the interdependence of natural gas and stock markets under structural breaks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 149-161.
    3. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2019. "Islamic and conventional equity markets: Two sides of the same coin, or not?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 191-205.
    4. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2019. "Revising the Impact of Global Commodity Prices and Global Stock Market Volatility Shocks: Effects across Countries," MPRA Paper 103035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Alkathery, Mohammed A. & Chaudhuri, Kausik & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2022. "Implications of clean energy, oil and emissions pricing for the GCC energy sector stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Beini Guo & Oyakhilome Ibhagui, 2019. "China–Africa stock market linkages and the global financial crisis," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(4), pages 301-316, July.
    7. Nicoleta BARBUTA-MISU & Teodor HADA & Iulia Cristina IUGA & Dorin WAINBERG, 2023. "Do Methane Gas Prices Interact with Stock Indices?," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 90-100.
    8. Jean Pierre Fernández Prada Saucedo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2020. "Modeling the Volatility of Returns on Commodities: An Application and Empirical Comparison of GARCH and SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-484, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    9. Vespignani, Joaquin & Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald, 2018. "Global Commodity Prices and Global Stock Volatility Shocks," MPRA Paper 84250, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2020. "Global commodity prices and global stock market volatility shocks: Effects across countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Is there a risk-return trade-off in cryptocurrency markets? The case of Bitcoin," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    12. Tursoy, Turgut & Faisal, Faisal & Berk, Niyazi & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "How do Stock Prices and Metal Prices Contribute to Economic Activity in Turkey? The Importance of Linear and Non-linear ARDL," MPRA Paper 88899, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Tuomas Peltonen & Ricardo Sousa & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2012. "Investment in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 97-119, August.
    14. Joseph J. French & Wei‐Xuan Li, 2012. "A note on US institutional equity flows to Brazil," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(3), pages 298-315, August.
    15. de Boyrie Maria E. & Pavlova Ivelina, 2018. "Equities and Commodities Comovements: Evidence from Emerging Markets," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 1-14, September.

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