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Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality

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  • Keith Bartholomew

Abstract

Land use-transportation scenario planning has become increasingly common in regional and sub-regional planning processes. The technique promises to provide citizens with opportunities to engage in constructive dialogue about the future of their communities, and to serve as a basis for assertive action to direct the course of that future. This study reviews 80 scenario planning projects from more than 50 U.S. metropolitan areas. The analysis reveals important gaps in the practice of scenario planning—particularly in the areas of public participation, methodology, and institutional structures—and recent efforts to address the shortcomings. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

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  • Keith Bartholomew, 2007. "Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 397-412, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:34:y:2007:i:4:p:397-412
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-006-9108-2
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    1. Zuo, Ting & Wei, Heng & Liu, Hao & Yang, Y. Jeffrey, 2019. "Bi-level optimization approach for configuring population and employment distributions with minimized vehicle travel demand," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 161-172.
    2. Laure Cabantous & Olivier Chanel & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2009. "Transport, Health and Climate Change: Deciding on the Optimal Policy," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 120, pages 11-36.
    3. Xinhai Lu & Mengcheng Wang & Yifeng Tang, 2021. "The Spatial Changes of Transportation Infrastructure and Its Threshold Effects on Urban Land Use Efficiency: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, March.
    4. Muhammad Qadeer ul Hussnain & Abdul Waheed & Khydija Wakil & Christopher James Pettit & Ejaz Hussain & Malik Asghar Naeem & Ghulam Abbas Anjum, 2020. "Shaping up the Future Spatial Plans for Urban Areas in Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-21, May.
    5. Steurer, Nora & Bonilla, David, 2016. "Building sustainable transport futures for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 121-133.
    6. David Hartgen, 2013. "Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(6), pages 1133-1157, November.
    7. Lewis, Rebecca & Margerum, Richard D., 2020. "Do urban centers support regional goals? An assessment of regional planning in Denver," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    8. Cascetta, Ennio & Cartenì, Armando & Pagliara, Francesca & Montanino, Marcello, 2015. "A new look at planning and designing transportation systems: A decision-making model based on cognitive rationality, stakeholder engagement and quantitative methods," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 27-39.
    9. Spickermann, Alexander & Grienitz, Volker & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Heading towards a multimodal city of the future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 201-221.
    10. de Luca, Stefano, 2014. "Public engagement in strategic transportation planning: An analytic hierarchy process based approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 110-124.
    11. Laure Cabantous & Olivier Chanel & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2009. "Transport, health and global warming: Deciding on the optimal policy," Post-Print hal-00636837, HAL.
    12. Kaihang Zhou & Scott Hawken, 2023. "Climate-Related Sea Level Rise and Coastal Wastewater Treatment Infrastructure Futures: Landscape Planning Scenarios for Negotiating Risks and Opportunities in Australian Urban Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-23, June.
    13. Manley, Ed & Cheng, Tao, 2018. "Exploring the role of spatial cognition in predicting urban traffic flow through agent-based modelling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 14-23.
    14. Henrik Carlsen & Karl Dreborg & Per Wikman-Svahn, 2013. "Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(8), pages 1239-1255, December.
    15. Helena Sustar & Miloš N. Mladenović & Moshe Givoni, 2020. "The Landscape of Envisioning and Speculative Design Methods for Sustainable Mobility Futures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
    16. Evan Mallen & Heather A. Joseph & Megan McLaughlin & Dorette Quintana English & Carmen Olmedo & Matt Roach & Carmen Tirdea & Jason Vargo & Matt Wolff & Emily York, 2022. "Overcoming Barriers to Successful Climate and Health Adaptation Practice: Notes from the Field," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-19, June.
    17. Ma, Lu & Srinivasan, Sivaramakrishnan, 2016. "An empirical assessment of factors affecting the accuracy of target-year synthetic populations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 247-264.
    18. Wang, Ling & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Jianjun & Zhang, Di & Wu, Xia & Zhang, Lijun, 2020. "Multiple objective-oriented land supply for sustainable transportation: A perspective from industrial dependence, dominance and restrictions of 127 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

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