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Expected Accrual Models: The Impact of Operating Cash Flows and Reversals of Accruals

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  • Jinhan Pae

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Abstract

This paper augments the Jones (1991) model with operating cash flows and lagged accruals to evaluate the impact of (1) the negative association between accruals and concurrent cash flows, (2) the positive association between accruals and lagged cash flows, and (3) the reversal of accruals. I find that operating cash flows greatly improve the explanatory and predictive power of the Jones model; but, lagged accruals do not. A market test of the expected and unexpected components of accruals indicates that unexpected accruals are on average informative with respect to concurrent stock returns; however, the market does not fully understand the implications of accruals anticipated at the beginning of the return period. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Jinhan Pae, 2005. "Expected Accrual Models: The Impact of Operating Cash Flows and Reversals of Accruals," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 5-22, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:24:y:2005:i:1:p:5-22
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-005-5324-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas, Jacob & Zhang, Xiao-jun, 2000. "Identifying unexpected accruals: a comparison of current approaches," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4-5), pages 347-376.
    2. Dechow, Patricia M., 1994. "Accounting earnings and cash flows as measures of firm performance : The role of accounting accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-42, July.
    3. Guay, W. & Kothari, S.P. & Watts, R.L., 1996. "A Market-Based Evaluation of Discretionary-Accrual Models," Papers 96-01, Rochester, Business - Financial Research and Policy Studies.
    4. Nelson, Karen K. & Barth, Mary E. & Cram, Donald, 2001. "Accruals and the Prediction of Future Cash Flows," Research Papers 1594r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    5. Dechow, Patricia M. & Sloan, Richard G., 1991. "Executive incentives and the horizon problem : An empirical investigation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 51-89, March.
    6. Paul Hribar, 2002. "Errors in Estimating Accruals: Implications for Empirical Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 105-134, March.
    7. DeFond, Mark L. & Jiambalvo, James, 1994. "Debt covenant violation and manipulation of accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 145-176, January.
    8. repec:bla:joares:v:34:y:1996:i::p:107-115 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Subramanyam, K. R., 1996. "The pricing of discretionary accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-3), pages 249-281, October.
    10. Beneish, Messod D., 1997. "Detecting GAAP violation: implications for assessing earnings management among firms with extreme financial performance," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 271-309.
    11. Healy, Paul M., 1985. "The effect of bonus schemes on accounting decisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1-3), pages 85-107, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Belén Gill de Albornoz Noguer & Manuel Illueca Muñoz, 2007. "La calidad de los ajustes por devengo no afecta al coste de la deuda de las PYMES españolas," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 31(1), pages 79-117, January.
    2. Mawuena Akosua Kukah & Mohammed Amidu & Joshua Yindenaba Abor, 2016. "Corporate governance mechanisms and accounting information quality of listed firms in Ghana," African Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 38-58.
    3. repec:bbz:fcpbbr:v:9:y:2012:i:1:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS

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