Expected Closeness and Turnout: An Empirical Analysis for the German General Elections, 1983-1994
This paper investigates whether expected closeness had a significant impact on turnout in the different electoral districts of the German general elections, 1983-94. The authors find no closeness effect for the 1983 but a significant positive one for the 1987 election. The 1990 election revealed an asymmetry: in West Germany they find a positive and statistically significant closeness effect; in East Germany, a negative but also significant one. This result is lacking a theoretical explanation so far. For 1994, the authors find a positive significant effect in West and a positive but not significant one in East Germany. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
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