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Expected Utility: An Anniversary and a New Era

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  • Fishburn, Peter C

Abstract

During the past generation, expected utility theory has been widely accepted as the normative standard for decisionmaking under risk and under uncertainty. However, it is now known that reasonable people often violate its assumptions, and a number of generalizations of the theory have been developed to accommodate some of the more common violations. This essay recalls the origins of expected utility in the early 1700s, notes its axiomatizations on the basis of preference comparisons in the mid-1900s, describes violations of those axioms uncovered since then, outlines new theories stimulated by the violations, and suggests where the field might be headed in the next few decades. Copyright 1988 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Fishburn, Peter C, 1988. "Expected Utility: An Anniversary and a New Era," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 267-283, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:1:y:1988:i:3:p:267-83
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    Cited by:

    1. Castejon, Mario & Moss, Charles B. & Ford, Stephen A., 1989. "Effect Of Debt Position On The Choice Of Marketing Strategies For Florida Orange Growers," 1989 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 2, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 270465, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Ravi Bapna & Chrysanthos Dellarocas & Sarah Rice, 2010. "Vertically Differentiated Simultaneous Vickrey Auctions: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(7), pages 1074-1092, July.
    3. Ho, Lok Sang, 1998. "A model of human nature and personal development," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 271-287.
    4. Mehrez, Abraham, 1997. "The interface between OR/MS and decision theory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 38-47, May.
    5. Tibor Neugebauer, 2010. "Moral Impossibility in the Petersburg Paradox : A Literature Survey and Experimental Evidence," LSF Research Working Paper Series 10-14, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    6. Laurent Denant-Boemont & Olivier L’Haridon, 2013. "La rationalité à l'épreuve de l'économie comportementale," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 35-89.
    7. Han Bleichrodt & Peter P. Wakker, 2015. "Regret Theory: A Bold Alternative to the Alternatives," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(583), pages 493-532, March.
    8. Marc Willinger, 1990. "La rénovation des fondements de l'utilité et du risque," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(1), pages 5-48.
    9. Andrea C. Hupman & Jay Simon, 2023. "The Legacy of Peter Fishburn: Foundational Work and Lasting Impact," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Shaw, W. Douglass & Woodward, Richard T., 2008. "Why environmental and resource economists should care about non-expected utility models," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 66-89, January.

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