IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iaecre/v23y2017i1d10.1007_s11294-016-9620-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rolling Regression Analysis of the Pástor-Stambaugh Model: Evidence from Robust Instrumental Variables

Author

Listed:
  • François-Éric Racicot

    () (University of Ottawa, ON, Canada; Chaire d’information financière et organisationnelle, ESG-UQAM (Montreal, Qc); CGA-Canada Accounting and Governance Centre)

  • William F. Rentz

    () (University of Ottawa)

  • Alfred L. Kahl

    () (University of Ottawa)

Abstract

Abstract The capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Fama-French (FF), and Pástor-Stambaugh (PS) factor models are examined using a new dynamic rolling regression version of the generalized method of moments (GMM) method. This rolling regression framework not only allows us to investigate phases of the business cycle, but also permits regression estimates to vary through time due to changes in the development and efficiency of the sectors. The principal reasons for using the dynamic GMM with robust instruments is that some of these factors are measured with errors and the disturbances may be non-spherical. The CAPM appears as the most parsimonious model to explain the FF sector returns. Furthermore, the rolling GMM approach is clearly more sensitive to dynamic financial episodes than the ordinary least squares approach. In particular, liquidity has some anticipatory power, as it is able to forecast the 2007–2009 crises with heightened volatility starting in late 2005.

Suggested Citation

  • François-Éric Racicot & William F. Rentz & Alfred L. Kahl, 2017. "Rolling Regression Analysis of the Pástor-Stambaugh Model: Evidence from Robust Instrumental Variables," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 23(1), pages 75-90, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:23:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11294-016-9620-x DOI: 10.1007/s11294-016-9620-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11294-016-9620-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Michael C. Jensen, 1968. "The Performance Of Mutual Funds In The Period 1945–1964," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 389-416, May.
    4. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    5. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    6. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    7. Pal, Manoranjan, 1980. "Consistent moment estimators of regression coefficients in the presence of errors in variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 349-364, December.
    8. Adrian Pagan, 1986. "Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, pages 517-538.
    9. Mandelbrot, Benoit B, 1972. "Correction of an Error in "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices" (1963)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(4), pages 542-543, October.
    10. Rubinstein, Mark E., 1973. "The Fundamental Theorem of Parameter-Preference Security Valuation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(01), pages 61-69, January.
    11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    12. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    13. Eugene F. Fama, 1965. "Portfolio Analysis in a Stable Paretian Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 404-419, January.
    14. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 125-132.
    15. Pagan, Adrian & Ullah, Aman, 1988. "The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 87-105, April.
    16. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    17. François-Éric Racicot, 2015. "Engineering robust instruments for GMM estimation of panel data regression models with errors in variables: a note," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(10), pages 981-989, February.
    18. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    19. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Eugene F. Fama, 1963. "Mandelbrot and the Stable Paretian Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 420-420.
    21. François-Éric Racicot & Raymond Théoret, 2009. "On Optimal Instrumental Variables Generators, with an Application to Hedge Fund Returns," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 15(1), pages 30-43, February.
    22. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; CAPM; Fama-French model; Liquidity; Rolling GMM; Robust instruments;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:23:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11294-016-9620-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.