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A symmetric Super Bowl stock market predictor model

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  • Jeffery Born
  • Yousra Acherqui

Abstract

Krueger and Kennedy (J Fin 45:691–697, 1990 ) were the first to empirically document the remarkable stock market predictive power of the winner of the Super Bowl. The original model had investors go “long” in the market when the Super Bowl was won by a team from the old NFL, but park their money in T-Bills when the Super Bowl was won by a team from the old AFL—a non-symmetric trading rule. We create a symmetric rule (go “long” in the market when the old NFL wins; go “short” when they lose) and compare its efficacy to the original formulation. The symmetric rule outperforms the original KK specification in the period covered by their study (1967–1988), but performs worse than the original specification (and the naïve buy-and-hold strategy) since 1988. Copyright Swiss Society for Financial Market Research 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffery Born & Yousra Acherqui, 2015. "A symmetric Super Bowl stock market predictor model," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 29(2), pages 115-124, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:29:y:2015:i:2:p:115-124
    DOI: 10.1007/s11408-015-0247-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frank Fehle & Sergey Tsyplakov & Vladimir Zdorovtsov, 2005. "Can Companies Influence Investor Behaviour through Advertising? Super Bowl Commercials and Stock Returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(5), pages 625-647, November.
    2. Krueger, Thomas M & Kennedy, William F, 1990. "An Examination of the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 691-697, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kofi A. Amoateng, 2019. "Did Tom Brady Save the US stock market? Market Anomaly or Market Efficiency?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(5), pages 128-128, May.

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