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Modelling Structural Change Using the Kalman Filter

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  • Hall, Stephen G

Abstract

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States, yet conventional econometric modeling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable "true" economy to be discovered. This paper explores the consequences of endemic structural change for econometric modeling by considering the model reduction problem when the data generation process is itself undergoing structural change. The resultant econometric model, it is argued will generally exhibit time varying parameters where much of the structural change is reflected in the changing parameters. The use of Kalman Filters to estimate such changing parameters is then discussed and a range of specifications which allow the inclusion of different forms of identifying information is given. The paper then illustrates these ideas by modeling the determination of the black market exchange rate in Poland over the period from the mid 1970s to the early 1990s. Copyright 1993 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Hall, Stephen G, 1993. "Modelling Structural Change Using the Kalman Filter," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:26:y:1993:i:1:p:1-13
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    Cited by:

    1. Basdevant, Olivier, 2000. "An econometric model of the Russian Federation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 305-336, April.
    2. Gomez, José M.A. & Legey, Luiz F.L., 2015. "An analysis of the impact of Flex-Fuel vehicles on fuel consumption in Brazil, applying Cointegration and the Kalman Filter," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 696-705.
    3. Basdevant, Olivier & Hall, Stephen G., 2002. "The 1998 Russian crisis: could the exchange rate volatility have predicted it?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 151-168, May.
    4. Joseph E. Gagnon & Paul R. Masson & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2019. "German Unification: What Have We Learned from Multi-Country Models?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 4, pages 101-140, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G., 1996. "Modelling economies subject to structural change: The case of Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 545-559, October.
    6. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January.
    7. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    8. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    9. Pavlos KARADELOGLOU, 1998. "Agricultural Prices In Bulgaria: Did Transition Create Structural Breaks?," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 36(2), pages 178-202, June.
    10. Brand, Claus & Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2002. "Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth," Occasional Paper Series 3, European Central Bank.

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