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Partial credibility and policy announcements: The problem of time inconsistency in macroeconomics revisited

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  • Silke Reeves

Abstract

This paper studies the credibility of policy announcements in macroeconomics. This issue is exemplified by the problem of monetary policy design in light of an expectations-augmented Phillips curve. In contrast to reputational models of the repeated games literature, the credibility problem between the central bank and the private sector, which results from the policymaker's temptation to create surprise inflation to raise employment, cannot be eliminated. The paper shows that credibility in any sequential equilibrium is generally only partial, in that market participants do not fully believe policy announcements of low inflation rates, even if forthright policies have been implemented in all periods. Indicating reputation-building, credibility improves over time. The example is then used to show the policy implications of partial credibility. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 1997

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  • Silke Reeves, 1997. "Partial credibility and policy announcements: The problem of time inconsistency in macroeconomics revisited," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(4), pages 344-357, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:25:y:1997:i:4:p:344-357
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02298345
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kreps, David M & Wilson, Robert, 1982. "Sequential Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 863-894, July.
    2. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
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    5. Cukierman, Alex & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Dynamics of Optimal Gradual Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 439-458, September.
    6. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    7. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 1988. "Reputation, Unobserved Strategies, and Active Supermartingales," Working papers 490, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    8. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1987. "Reputational constraints on monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 141-181, January.
    9. Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1982. "Predation, reputation, and entry deterrence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 280-312, August.
    10. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 530-538, June.
    11. Benoit, Jean-Pierre & Krishna, Vijay, 1985. "Finitely Repeated Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(4), pages 905-922, July.
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