IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The Predictability of House Prices

  • Anthony Y. Gu

    ()

    (State University of New York, Geneseo, NY 14454)

The level and direction of autocorrelation in house price movements differ across areas and change over time. This finding reconciles the conflicting reports in the literature. When quarterly house price indices exhibit negative autocorrelation, autocorrelation shows a positive connection to volatility and a negative connection to rate of return. Autocorrelation between longer time periods is mainly positive; it exhibits a negative relationship with volatility and a positive relationship with rate of return. Volatile house price indices tend to have lower rates of return. It would be possible to obtain excess returns by following a trading strategy based on the estimated autocorrelation.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol24n03/01.213_234.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 24 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 213-234

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:24:n:3:2002:p:213-234
Contact details of provider: Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/Email:

Order Information: Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/about/get.htm Email:


No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:24:n:3:2002:p:213-234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (JRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.