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Neuere Ansätze in der Konjunkturforschung durch die Verwendung von Konjunkturindikatoren / New Approaches in Business Cycle Research: The Application of Business Cycle Indicators

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  • Oppenländer Karl Heinrich

    () (Ulmenstr. 4, D-85521 Ottobrunn, Germany)

Abstract

The question arises whether there can be an enrichment of business cycle research when business cycle indicators will be used in an increasing dimension. This article, dedicated to Professor Adolf Wagner, tries to differentiate three fields of research: Hypothesis formation in theory, characterisation of market imbalances and measurement of cycle and trend in empirical methods, short-term prognoses and turning point analyses in forecasting. Can we establish new hypotheses by considering expectations, gained from surveys? A special proposal aimed at the measure of the reference cycle by using the utilization of capacities in enterprises. It is evident, that when using business cycle indicators in business cycle research we can avoid the dichotomy between the three fields in business cycle research, which has been observed in the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Oppenländer Karl Heinrich, 2004. "Neuere Ansätze in der Konjunkturforschung durch die Verwendung von Konjunkturindikatoren / New Approaches in Business Cycle Research: The Application of Business Cycle Indicators," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(1-2), pages 152-165, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:224:y:2004:i:1-2:p:152-165
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1998. "Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 58-96, July.
    2. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 310-332.
    3. Howitt, Peter & McAfee, R Preston, 1992. "Animal Spirits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 493-507.
    4. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
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