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Simulation Modelling as a Theory Building Tool: The Formation of Risk Perceptions

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Abstract

This paper presents a computer based simulation model which analyses the dynamics of public perceptions of risk using Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) ('mad cow disease') in the UK as a case study. The model is based upon a theoretically-derived understanding of the concept of perception of risk, and employs Cultural Theory and the archetypes it identifies as distinctive forms of social organization and cultural bias in the formation of perceptions. Cultural Theory is used as a theoretical lens for understanding the different interpretations of the risk associated with BSE/nvCJD, the subsequent risk amplification by the media, and the effect of trust and reliance in science and government in their construction. The analysis helps achieve a better understanding of the dynamics of public perceptions of risk, and it is therefore of interest both for academics and policy makers. In particular, the model allows exploring the influence that the occurrence of risk-related events, their media coverage, and trust in government responses has in the process by which people construct their risk perceptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mercedes Bleda & Simon Shackley, 2012. "Simulation Modelling as a Theory Building Tool: The Formation of Risk Perceptions," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 15(2), pages 1-2.
    • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2011-8-2
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    1. Sujeetha Selvakkumaran & Erik O. Ahlgren, 2018. "Model-Based Exploration of Co-Creation Efforts: The Case of Solar Photovoltaics (PV) in Skåne, Sweden," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Branden B. Johnson & Brendon Swedlow, 2021. "Cultural Theory's Contributions to Risk Analysis: A Thematic Review with Directions and Resources for Further Research," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 429-455, March.
    3. Sara McPhee-Knowles, 2015. "Growing Food Safety from the Bottom Up: An Agent-Based Model of Food Safety Inspections," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 18(2), pages 1-9.
    4. M. Aenne Schoop & Marco Verweij & Ulrich Kühnen & Shenghua Luan, 2020. "Political disagreement in the classroom: testing cultural theory through structured observation," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 623-643, April.

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