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Small-sample bias in synthetic cohort models of labor supply

  • Paul J. Devereux

    (School of Economics and Geary Institute, University College Dublin, Ireland)

This paper investigates small-sample biases in synthetic cohort models (repeated cross-sectional data grouped at the cohort and year level) in the context of a female labor supply model. I use the Current Population Survey to compare estimates when group sizes are extremely large to those that arise from randomly drawing subsamples of observations from the large groups. I augment this approach with Monte Carlo analysis so as to precisely quantify biases and coverage rates. In this particular application, thousands of observations per group are required before small-sample issues can be ignored in estimation and sampling error leads to large downward biases in the estimated income elasticity. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 839-848

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:22:y:2007:i:4:p:839-848
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  1. Nijman, T.E. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 1993. "Minimum MSE estimation of a regression model with fixed effects from a series of cross sections," Other publications TiSEM 34c1104a-a64b-4030-be99-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  2. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-153277 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Bekker, Paul A, 1994. "Alternative Approximations to the Distributions of Instrumental Variable Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 657-81, May.
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  7. Verbeek, M.J.C.M. & Nijman, T.E., 1990. "Can cohort data be treated as genuine panel data?," Discussion Paper 1990-64, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  8. Jerry A. Hausman & Paul Ruud, 1984. "Family Labor Supply With Taxes," NBER Working Papers 1271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. John Pencavel, 1998. "The Market Work Behavior and Wages of Women: 1975-94," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(4), pages 771-804.
  10. Buchinsky, Moshe, 1995. "Estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix for quantile regression models a Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 303-338, August.
  11. Paul J. Devereux, 2007. "Small-sample bias in synthetic cohort models of labor supply," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 839-848.
  12. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Costas Meghir, 1998. "Estimating Labor Supply Responses Using Tax Reforms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 827-862, July.
  13. Verbeek, Marno & Nijman, Theo, 1993. "Minimum MSE estimation of a regression model with fixed effects from a series of cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 125-136, September.
  14. Angrist, Joshua D., 1991. "Grouped-data estimation and testing in simple labor-supply models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 243-266, February.
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  16. Kooreman, Peter & Kapteyn, Arie, 1986. "Estimation of Rationed and Unrationed Household Labour Supply Functions Using Flexible Functional Forms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(382), pages 398-412, June.
  17. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695 Elsevier.
  18. Moffitt, Robert, 1993. "Identification and estimation of dynamic models with a time series of repeated cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 99-123, September.
  19. Altonji, Joseph G, 1986. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages S176-S215, June.
  20. Paul J. Devereux, 2004. "Changes in Relative Wages and Family Labor Supply," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(3).
  21. Angrist, J D & Imbens, G W & Krueger, A B, 1999. "Jackknife Instrumental Variables Estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 57-67, Jan.-Feb..
  22. Browning, Martin & Deaton, Angus & Irish, Margaret, 1985. "A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demands over the Life-Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 503-43, May.
  23. Dean R. Hyslop, 2001. "Rising U.S. Earnings Inequality and Family Labor Supply: The Covariance Structure of Intrafamily Earnings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 755-777, September.
  24. Ransom, Michael R, 1987. "An Empirical Model of Discrete and Continuous Choice in Family Labor Supply," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 465-72, August.
  25. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 1990. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," Working Papers 653, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  26. Deaton, Angus, 1985. "Panel data from time series of cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 109-126.
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