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Projections and impact assessment of the local climate change conditions of the Black Volta Basin of Ghana based on the Statistical DownScaling Model

Author

Listed:
  • Siabi, E. K.
  • Phuong, D. N. D.
  • Kabobah, A. T.
  • Akpoti, Komlavi

    (International Water Management Institute)

  • Anornu, G.
  • Incoom, A. B. M.
  • Nyantakyi, E. K.
  • Yeboah, K. A.
  • Siabi, S. E.
  • Vuu, C.
  • Domfeh, M. K.
  • Mortey, E. M.
  • Wemegah, C. S.
  • Kudjoe, F.
  • Opoku, P. D.
  • Asare, A.
  • Mensah, S. K.
  • Donkor, P.
  • Opoku, E. K.
  • Ouattara, Z. A.
  • Obeng-Ahenkora, N. K.
  • Adusu, D.
  • Quansah, A.

Abstract

The uncertainties and biases associated with Global Climate Models (GCMs) ascend from global to regional and local scales which delimits the applicability and suitability of GCMs in site-specific impact assessment research. The study downscaled two GCMs to evaluate effects of climate change (CC) in the Black Volta Basin (BVB) using Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and 40-year ground station data. The study employed Taylor diagrams, dimensionless, dimensioned, and goodness of fit statistics to evaluate model performance. SDSM produced good performance in downscaling daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature in the basin. Future projections of precipitation by HadCM3 and CanESM2 indicated decreasing trend as revealed by the delta statistics and ITA plots. Both models projected near- to far-future increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation by 2.05-23.89, 5.41–46.35, and 5.84–35.33% in the near, mid, and far future respectively. Therefore, BVB is expected to become hotter and drier by 2100. As such, climate actions to combat detrimental effects on the BVB must be revamped since the basin hosts one of the largest hydropower dams in Ghana. The study is expected to support the integration of CC mitigation into local, national, and international policies, and support knowledge and capacity building to meet CC challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Siabi, E. K. & Phuong, D. N. D. & Kabobah, A. T. & Akpoti, Komlavi & Anornu, G. & Incoom, A. B. M. & Nyantakyi, E. K. & Yeboah, K. A. & Siabi, S. E. & Vuu, C. & Domfeh, M. K. & Mortey, E. M. & Wemegah, 2023. "Projections and impact assessment of the local climate change conditions of the Black Volta Basin of Ghana based on the Statistical DownScaling Model," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 14(2):494-5.
    • Handle: RePEc:iwt:jounls:h052017
    DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.352
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keith W. Dixon & John R. Lanzante & Mary Jo Nath & Katharine Hayhoe & Anne Stoner & Aparna Radhakrishnan & V. Balaji & Carlos F. Gaitán, 2016. "Evaluating the stationarity assumption in statistically downscaled climate projections: is past performance an indicator of future results?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 395-408, April.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & James Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & John Weyant, 2011. "A special issue on the RCPs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 1-4, November.
    3. Roja Najafi & Masoud Reza Hessami Kermani, 2017. "Uncertainty Modeling of Statistical Downscaling to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Temperature and Precipitation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(6), pages 1843-1858, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Mawuko Ocloo, 2025. "Water yield of the Volta Basin under future land use and climate change," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 2523-2548, January.

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