IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v65y2017i5p1343-1354.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Surviving a National Football League Survivor Pool

Author

Listed:
  • David Bergman

    (Department of Operations and Information Management, University of Connecticut, Stamford, Connecticut 06901)

  • Jason Imbrogno

    (Department of Economics & Finance, University of North Alabama, Florence, Alabama 35632)

Abstract

In this paper, an analytical approach to National Football League (NFL) survival pools is investigated. This paper introduces into the literature NFL survival pools and presents optimization models for determining strategies. Computational results indicate that planning only partway through the season yields the highest survival probabilities, which dominate millions of randomly generated strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • David Bergman & Jason Imbrogno, 2017. "Surviving a National Football League Survivor Pool," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(5), pages 1343-1354, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:65:y:2017:i:5:p:1343-1354
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2017.1633
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2017.1633
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.2017.1633?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Kvam & Joel S. Sokol, 2006. "A logistic regression/Markov chain model for NCAA basketball," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(8), pages 788-803, December.
    2. Arash Khatibi & Golshid Baharian & Estelle R. Kone & Sheldon H. Jacobson, 2014. "The sequential stochastic assignment problem with random success rates," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(11), pages 1169-1180, November.
    3. Cyrus Derman & Gerald J. Lieberman & Sheldon M. Ross, 1972. "A Sequential Stochastic Assignment Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(7), pages 349-355, March.
    4. Arash Khatibi & Golshid Baharian & Banafsheh Behzad & Sheldon Jacobson, 2015. "Extensions of the sequential stochastic assignment problem," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 82(3), pages 317-340, December.
    5. Gershkov, Alex & Moldovanu, Benny, 2010. "Efficient sequential assignment with incomplete information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 144-154, January.
    6. Raymond D. Sauer, 1998. "The Economics of Wagering Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2021-2064, December.
    7. Alexander G. Nikolaev & Sheldon H. Jacobson, 2010. "Technical Note ---Stochastic Sequential Decision-Making with a Random Number of Jobs," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(4-part-1), pages 1023-1027, August.
    8. Metrick, Andrew, 1996. "March madness? Strategic behavior in NCAA basketball tournament betting pools," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 159-172, August.
    9. Bryan Clair & David Letscher, 2007. "Optimal Strategies for Sports Betting Pools," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(6), pages 1163-1177, December.
    10. Stekler Herman O. & Klein Andrew, 2012. "Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, March.
    11. Barbara M. Anthony & Christine Chung, 2014. "Online bottleneck matching," Journal of Combinatorial Optimization, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 100-114, January.
    12. Steven Caudill & Norman Godwin, 2002. "Heterogeneous skewness in binary choice models: Predicting outcomes in the men's NCAA basketball tournament," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 991-1001.
    13. Edward H. Kaplan & Stanley J. Garstka, 2001. "March Madness and the Office Pool," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(3), pages 369-382, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stekler Herman O. & Klein Andrew, 2012. "Predicting the Outcomes of NCAA Basketball Championship Games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, March.
    2. Arash Khatibi & Sheldon H. Jacobson, 2016. "Doubly Stochastic Sequential Assignment Problem," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(2), pages 124-137, March.
    3. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
      • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    4. Arash Khatibi & Golshid Baharian & Banafsheh Behzad & Sheldon Jacobson, 2015. "Extensions of the sequential stochastic assignment problem," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 82(3), pages 317-340, December.
    5. Nicholas G. Hall & Chris N. Potts, 2012. "A Proposal for Redesign of the FedEx Cup Playoff Series on the PGA TOUR," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 42(2), pages 166-179, April.
    6. Bryan Clair & David Letscher, 2007. "Optimal Strategies for Sports Betting Pools," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(6), pages 1163-1177, December.
    7. Paul Kvam & Joel S. Sokol, 2006. "A logistic regression/Markov chain model for NCAA basketball," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(8), pages 788-803, December.
    8. Xuhan Tian & Junmin (Jim) Shi & Xiangtong Qi, 2022. "Stochastic Sequential Allocations for Creative Crowdsourcing," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(2), pages 697-714, February.
    9. David Bergman & Carlos Cardonha & Jason Imbrogno & Leonardo Lozano, 2023. "Optimizing the Expected Maximum of Two Linear Functions Defined on a Multivariate Gaussian Distribution," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(2), pages 304-317, March.
    10. Phillip E. Pfeifer, 2016. "The promise of pick-the-winners contests for producing crowd probability forecasts," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 81(2), pages 255-278, August.
    11. Francis Bloch & Nicolas Houy, 2012. "Optimal assignment of durable objects to successive agents," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 51(1), pages 13-33, September.
    12. Arieh Gavious & Ella Segev, 2017. "Price Discrimination Based on Buyers’ Purchase History," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 229-265, June.
    13. Martin B. Haugh & Raghav Singal, 2021. "How to Play Fantasy Sports Strategically (and Win)," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 72-92, January.
    14. Tianke Feng & Joseph C. Hartman, 2015. "The dynamic and stochastic knapsack Problem with homogeneous‐sized items and postponement options," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(4), pages 267-292, June.
    15. Sheldon M. Ross & Gideon Weiss & Zhengyu Zhang, 2021. "Technical Note—A Stochastic Assignment Problem with Unknown Eligibility Probabilities," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 266-272, January.
    16. Ottaviani, Marco & Sørensen, Peter Norman, 2003. "Late Informed Betting and the Favourite-Longshot Bias," CEPR Discussion Papers 4092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. David T. Wu & Sheldon M. Ross, 2015. "A stochastic assignment problem," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(1), pages 23-31, February.
    18. Jorge A. Sefair & J. Cole Smith, 2017. "Exact algorithms and bounds for the dynamic assignment interdiction problem," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(5), pages 373-387, August.
    19. Andrew Weinbach & Rodney J. Paul, 2009. "National television coverage and the behavioural bias of bettors: the American college football totals market," International Gambling Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 55-66, April.
    20. Glenn Boyle & Graeme Guthrie & Luke Gorton, 2010. "Holding onto Your Horses: Conflicts of Interest in Asset Management," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(4), pages 689-713.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:65:y:2017:i:5:p:1343-1354. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.