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Wait-Time Predictors for Customer Service Systems with Time-Varying Demand and Capacity

Author

Listed:
  • Rouba Ibrahim

    (Desautels Faculty of Management, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3A 1G5, Canada)

  • Ward Whitt

    (Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

Abstract

We develop new, improved real-time delay predictors for many-server service systems with a time-varying arrival rate, a time-varying number of servers, and customer abandonment. We develop four new predictors, two of which exploit an established deterministic fluid approximation for a many-server queueing model with those features. These delay predictors can be used to make delay announcements. We use computer simulation to show that the proposed predictors outperform previous predictors.

Suggested Citation

  • Rouba Ibrahim & Ward Whitt, 2011. "Wait-Time Predictors for Customer Service Systems with Time-Varying Demand and Capacity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1106-1118, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:59:y:2011:i:5:p:1106-1118
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.1110.0974
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ward Whitt, 2005. "Engineering Solution of a Basic Call-Center Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(2), pages 221-235, February.
    2. Rouba Ibrahim & Ward Whitt, 2009. "Real-Time Delay Estimation Based on Delay History," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 397-415, May.
    3. Pengfei Guo & Paul Zipkin, 2007. "Analysis and Comparison of Queues with Different Levels of Delay Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 962-970, June.
    4. Lawrence Brown & Noah Gans & Avishai Mandelbaum & Anat Sakov & Haipeng Shen & Sergey Zeltyn & Linda Zhao, 2005. "Statistical Analysis of a Telephone Call Center: A Queueing-Science Perspective," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 36-50, March.
    5. Zohar Feldman & Avishai Mandelbaum & William A. Massey & Ward Whitt, 2008. "Staffing of Time-Varying Queues to Achieve Time-Stable Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(2), pages 324-338, February.
    6. Mor Armony & Nahum Shimkin & Ward Whitt, 2009. "The Impact of Delay Announcements in Many-Server Queues with Abandonment," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(1), pages 66-81, February.
    7. Oualid Jouini & Zeynep Akşin & Yves Dallery, 2011. "Call Centers with Delay Information: Models and Insights," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 13(4), pages 534-548, October.
    8. Ward Whitt, 1999. "Improving Service by Informing Customers About Anticipated Delays," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 192-207, February.
    9. Mor Armony & Constantinos Maglaras, 2004. "Contact Centers with a Call-Back Option and Real-Time Delay Information," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 527-545, August.
    10. Oualid Jouini & Zeynep Aksin & Yves Dallery, 2011. "Call Centers with Delay Information: Models and Insights," Post-Print hal-00680769, HAL.
    11. Rouba Ibrahim & Ward Whitt, 2009. "Real-Time Delay Estimation in Overloaded Multiserver Queues with Abandonments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(10), pages 1729-1742, October.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Siddharth Prakash Singh & Mohammad Delasay & Alan Scheller‐Wolf, 2023. "Real‐time delay announcement under competition," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(3), pages 863-881, March.
    3. Miao Yu & Yu Zhao & Chunguang Chang & Liangliang Sun, 2023. "Fluid models for customer service web chat systems with interactive automated service," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 572-598, June.
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    5. Morgan, Lucy E. & Barton, Russell R., 2022. "Fourier trajectory analysis for system discrimination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(1), pages 203-217.
    6. Fabian Schéele & Darek M. Haftor & Natallia Pashkevich, 2022. "Predicting delays in service operations," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 16(2), pages 211-226, June.
    7. Najiya Fatma & Varun Ramamohan, 2023. "Patient diversion using real-time delay predictions across healthcare facility networks," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(2), pages 437-476, June.
    8. Freek Verdonck & Herwig Bruneel & Sabine Wittevrongel, 2021. "Delay in a 2-State Discrete-Time Queue with Stochastic State-Period Lengths and State-Dependent Server Availability and Arrivals," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-17, July.
    9. Yina Lu & Andrés Musalem & Marcelo Olivares & Ariel Schilkrut, 2013. "Measuring the Effect of Queues on Customer Purchases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(8), pages 1743-1763, August.
    10. Azam Asanjarani & Yoni Nazarathy & Peter Taylor, 2021. "A survey of parameter and state estimation in queues," Queueing Systems: Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 97(1), pages 39-80, February.

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