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Design for Postponement: A Comprehensive Characterization of Its Benefits Under Unknown Demand Distributions

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  • Yossi Aviv

    (Olin School of Business, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri 63130)

  • Awi Federgruen

    (Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

Abstract

Recent papers have developed analytical models to explain and quantify the benefits of delayed differentiation and quick response programs. These models assume that while demands in each period are random, they are independent across time and their distribution is perfectly known, i.e., sales forecasts do not need to be updated as time progresses. In this paper, we characterize these benefits in more general settings, where parameters of the demand distributions fail to be known with accuracy or where consecutive demands are correlated. Here it is necessary to revise estimates of the parameters of the demand distributions on the basis of observed demand data. We analyze these systems in a Bayesian framework, assuming that our initial information about the parameters of the demand distributions is characterized via prior distributions. We also characterize the structure of close-to-optimal ordering rules in these systems, for a variety of types of order cost functions.

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  • Yossi Aviv & Awi Federgruen, 2001. "Design for Postponement: A Comprehensive Characterization of Its Benefits Under Unknown Demand Distributions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(4), pages 578-598, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:49:y:2001:i:4:p:578-598
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.49.4.578.11229
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    2. Wong, Hartanto & Potter, Andrew & Naim, Mohamed, 2011. "Evaluation of postponement in the soluble coffee supply chain: A case study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 355-364, May.
    3. Kisperska-Moron, Danuta & Swierczek, Artur, 2011. "The selected determinants of manufacturing postponement within supply chain context: An international study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 192-200, September.
    4. Daniel Granot & Shuya Yin, 2008. "Price and Order Postponement in a Decentralized Newsvendor Model with Multiplicative and Price-Dependent Demand," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(1), pages 121-139, February.
    5. Katsuyoshi Takashima, 2010. "Defining Product Customization as Form Postponement," Discussion Papers 2010-18, Kobe University, Graduate School of Business Administration.
    6. Wong, Hartanto & Lesmono, Dharma, 2013. "On the evaluation of product customization strategies in a vertically differentiated market," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 105-117.
    7. Boray Huang & Seyed M. R. Iravani, 2005. "Production Control Policies in Supply Chains with Selective-Information Sharing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(4), pages 662-674, August.
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    11. Jiri Chod & Nils Rudi, 2006. "Strategic Investments, Trading, and Pricing Under Forecast Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(12), pages 1913-1929, December.
    12. Ngniatedema, Thomas & Shanker, Murali & Hu, Michael Y. & Guiffrida, Alfred L. & Eddy Patuwo, B., 2015. "Late customization strategy with service levels requirements," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 72-84.
    13. Işık Biçer & Florian Lücker & Tamer Boyacı, 2022. "Beyond Retail Stores: Managing Product Proliferation along the Supply Chain," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(3), pages 1135-1156, March.
    14. Jiri Chod & David Pyke & Nils Rudi, 2010. "The Value of Flexibility in Make-to-Order Systems: The Effect of Demand Correlation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(4-part-1), pages 834-848, August.
    15. Jewkes, Elizabeth M. & Alfa, Attahiru S., 2009. "A queueing model of delayed product differentiation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 734-743, December.
    16. Azad Gholami, Reza & Sandal, Leif K. & Ubøe, Jan, 2019. "Explicit Solution Algorithms for Order and Price Postponement in Multi-periodic Channel Optimization," Discussion Papers 2019/9, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    17. Kunnumkal, Sumit & Topaloglu, Huseyin, 2011. "Linear programming based decomposition methods for inventory distribution systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 282-297, June.
    18. Wen Chen & Adam J. Fleischhacker & Michael N. Katehakis, 2015. "Dynamic pricing in a dual‐market environment," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(7), pages 531-549, October.
    19. Jiang, Li, 2012. "The implications of postponement on contract design and channel performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 356-366.
    20. Ngniatedema, Thomas & Fono, Louis Aimé & Mbondo, Georges Dieudonné, 2015. "A delayed product customization cost model with supplier delivery performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(1), pages 109-119.
    21. Guillermo Gallego & Özalp Özer & Paul Zipkin, 2007. "Bounds, Heuristics, and Approximations for Distribution Systems," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 503-517, June.
    22. Liu Yang & Chi To Ng & Yaodong Ni, 2017. "Flexible capacity strategy in an asymmetric oligopoly market with competition and demand uncertainty," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(2), pages 117-138, March.
    23. Amar Sapra & Jiri Chod & Aydiota n Alptekinou{g}lu & Li Chen & A. Gürhan Kök & Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz, 2004. "The MSOM Society Student Paper Competition: Extended Abstracts of 2003 Winners," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 92-112.

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