IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v66y12i2020p5738-5756.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decomposing Dynamic Risks into Risk Components

Author

Listed:
  • Katja Schilling

    (Institut für Versicherungswissenschaften, Universität Ulm, 89081 Ulm, Germany)

  • Daniel Bauer

    (Department of Risk and Insurance, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706)

  • Marcus C. Christiansen

    (Department of Risk and Insurance, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706)

  • Alexander Kling

    (Institut für Finanz- und Aktuarwissenschaften, 89081 Ulm, Germany)

Abstract

The decomposition of dynamic risks a company faces into components associated with various sources of risk, such as financial risks, aggregate economic risks, or industry-specific risk drivers, is of significant relevance in view of risk management and product design, particularly in (life) insurance. Nevertheless, although several decomposition approaches have been proposed, no systematic analysis is available. This paper closes this gap in literature by introducing properties for meaningful risk decompositions and demonstrating that proposed approaches violate at least one of these properties. As an alternative, we propose a novel martingale representation theorem ( MRT ) decomposition that relies on martingale representation and show that it satisfies all of the properties. We discuss its calculation and present detailed examples illustrating its applicability.

Suggested Citation

  • Katja Schilling & Daniel Bauer & Marcus C. Christiansen & Alexander Kling, 2020. "Decomposing Dynamic Risks into Risk Components," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(12), pages 5738-5756, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:66:y:12:i:2020:p:5738-5756
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2019.3522
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2019.3522
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2019.3522?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karabey, Uǧur & Kleinow, Torsten & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2014. "Factor risk quantification in annuity models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-45.
    2. Emanuele Borgonovo & Gordon B. Hazen & Elmar Plischke, 2016. "A Common Rationale for Global Sensitivity Measures and Their Estimation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(10), pages 1871-1895, October.
    3. Harvey M. Wagner, 1995. "Global Sensitivity Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(6), pages 948-969, December.
    4. Dahl, Mikkel & Moller, Thomas, 2006. "Valuation and hedging of life insurance liabilities with systematic mortality risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 193-217, October.
    5. Saltelli A. & Tarantola S., 2002. "On the Relative Importance of Input Factors in Mathematical Models: Safety Assessment for Nuclear Waste Disposal," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 702-709, September.
    6. Guangwu Liu & Liu Jeff Hong, 2009. "Kernel estimation of quantile sensitivities," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(6), pages 511-525, September.
    7. L. Jeff Hong, 2009. "Estimating Quantile Sensitivities," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(1), pages 118-130, February.
    8. Guangwu Liu, 2015. "Simulating Risk Contributions of Credit Portfolios," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 104-121, February.
    9. Nadine Gatzert & Hannah Wesker, 2014. "Mortality Risk and Its Effect on Shortfall and Risk Management in Life Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(1), pages 57-90, March.
    10. Biffis, Enrico, 2005. "Affine processes for dynamic mortality and actuarial valuations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 443-468, December.
    11. Biagini, Francesca & Rheinländer, Thorsten & Widenmann, Jan, 2013. "Hedging Mortality Claims With Longevity Bonds," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 123-157, May.
    12. Manel Baucells & Emanuele Borgonovo, 2013. "Invariant Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2536-2549, November.
    13. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Plischke, Elmar, 2016. "Sensitivity analysis: A review of recent advances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 869-887.
    14. Bauer, Daniel & Kling, Alexander & Russ, Jochen, 2008. "A Universal Pricing Framework for Guaranteed Minimum Benefits in Variable Annuities 1," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 621-651, November.
    15. Georges Dionne (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Insurance," Springer Books, Springer, edition 2, number 978-1-4614-0155-1, January.
    16. Michael C. Fu & L. Jeff Hong & Jian-Qiang Hu, 2009. "Conditional Monte Carlo Estimation of Quantile Sensitivities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(12), pages 2019-2027, December.
    17. Rosen, Dan & Saunders, David, 2010. "Risk factor contributions in portfolio credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 336-349, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lazar, Emese & Qi, Shuyuan, 2022. "Model risk in the over-the-counter market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 769-784.
    2. Gero Junike & Hauke Stier & Marcus C. Christiansen, 2022. "Sequential decompositions at their limit," Papers 2212.06733, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    3. Marcus C. Christiansen, 2021. "Time-dynamic evaluations under non-monotone information generated by marked point processes," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 563-596, July.
    4. Aigner, Philipp & Schlütter, Sebastian, 2023. "Enhancing gradient capital allocation with orthogonal convexity scenarios," ICIR Working Paper Series 47/23, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pesenti, Silvana M. & Millossovich, Pietro & Tsanakas, Andreas, 2019. "Reverse sensitivity testing: What does it take to break the model?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 654-670.
    2. Isadora Antoniano‐Villalobos & Emanuele Borgonovo & Sumeda Siriwardena, 2018. "Which Parameters Are Important? Differential Importance Under Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2459-2477, November.
    3. Plischke, Elmar & Borgonovo, Emanuele, 2019. "Copula theory and probabilistic sensitivity analysis: Is there a connection?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(3), pages 1046-1059.
    4. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Hazen, Gordon B. & Jose, Victor Richmond R. & Plischke, Elmar, 2021. "Probabilistic sensitivity measures as information value," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(2), pages 595-610.
    5. Makam, Vaishno Devi & Millossovich, Pietro & Tsanakas, Andreas, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis with χ2-divergences," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 372-383.
    6. Lu, Xuefei & Borgonovo, Emanuele, 2023. "Global sensitivity analysis in epidemiological modeling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 9-24.
    7. Xuefei Lu & Alessandro Rudi & Emanuele Borgonovo & Lorenzo Rosasco, 2020. "Faster Kriging: Facing High-Dimensional Simulators," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 233-249, January.
    8. Huang, Zhenzhen & Kwok, Yue Kuen & Xu, Ziqing, 2024. "Efficient algorithms for calculating risk measures and risk contributions in copula credit risk models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 132-150.
    9. Emanuele Borgonovo & Gordon B. Hazen & Elmar Plischke, 2016. "A Common Rationale for Global Sensitivity Measures and Their Estimation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(10), pages 1871-1895, October.
    10. Weihuan Huang & Nifei Lin & L. Jeff Hong, 2022. "Monte-Carlo Estimation of CoVaR," Papers 2210.06148, arXiv.org.
    11. Andreas Tsanakas & Pietro Millossovich, 2016. "Sensitivity Analysis Using Risk Measures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 30-48, January.
    12. Tatsuya Sakurahara & Seyed Reihani & Ernie Kee & Zahra Mohaghegh, 2020. "Global importance measure methodology for integrated probabilistic risk assessment," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(2), pages 377-396, April.
    13. S. Cucurachi & E. Borgonovo & R. Heijungs, 2016. "A Protocol for the Global Sensitivity Analysis of Impact Assessment Models in Life Cycle Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 357-377, February.
    14. Tobias Fissler & Silvana M. Pesenti, 2022. "Sensitivity Measures Based on Scoring Functions," Papers 2203.00460, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    15. Pesenti, Silvana M. & Tsanakas, Andreas & Millossovich, Pietro, 2018. "Euler allocations in the presence of non-linear reinsurance: Comment on Major (2018)," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 29-31.
    16. Silvana M. Pesenti & Pietro Millossovich & Andreas Tsanakas, 2023. "Differential Quantile-Based Sensitivity in Discontinuous Models," Papers 2310.06151, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    17. David Blake & Marco Morales & Enrico Biffis & Yijia Lin & Andreas Milidonis, 2017. "Special Edition: Longevity 10 – The Tenth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(S1), pages 515-532, April.
    18. Xi Chen & Kyoung-Kuk Kim, 2016. "Efficient VaR and CVaR Measurement via Stochastic Kriging," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 28(4), pages 629-644, November.
    19. Jiaqiao Hu & Yijie Peng & Gongbo Zhang & Qi Zhang, 2022. "A Stochastic Approximation Method for Simulation-Based Quantile Optimization," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 2889-2907, November.
    20. J P C Kleijnen & W C M van Beers, 2013. "Monotonicity-preserving bootstrapped Kriging metamodels for expensive simulations," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 64(5), pages 708-717, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:66:y:12:i:2020:p:5738-5756. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.