A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach to Estimate the Risks of Extremely Large Insurance Claims
The Pareto distribution is a heavy-tailed distribution often used in actuarial models. It is important for modeling losses in insurance claims, especially when we used it to calculate the probability of an extreme event. Traditionally, maximum likelihood is used for parameter estimation, and we use the estimated parameters to calculate the tail probability Pr(X>c) where c is a large value. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian method to calculate the probability of this event. Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques are employed to calculate the Pareto parameters.
Volume (Year): 6 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
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- Wang, Shaun, 1996. "Premium Calculation by Transforming the Layer Premium Density," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(01), pages 71-92, May.
- Shaun, Wang, 1995. "Insurance pricing and increased limits ratemaking by proportional hazards transforms," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 43-54, August.
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