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Self-Fulfilling Expectations and Economic Growth: A Model of Technology Adoption and Industrialization

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  • Chen, Been-Lon
  • Shimomura, Koji

Abstract

In this work, the authors construct a model that integrates both industrialization and endogenous growth. They feature the role of technology adoption in sustaining growth and achieving industrialization. The authors' economy contains multiple equilibria for an initial history. They found that only self-fulfilling expectations matter in selecting an equilibrium, whereas history plays no role. The authors' equilibrium is shown to involve a threshold property: when the economy starts above this threshold, the economy is able to sustain growth; otherwise, it is not. Both the rate of economic growth and the process of industrialization increase gradually and approach an upper hound. Copyright 1998 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Been-Lon & Shimomura, Koji, 1998. "Self-Fulfilling Expectations and Economic Growth: A Model of Technology Adoption and Industrialization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(1), pages 151-170, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:39:y:1998:i:1:p:151-70
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Been-Lon & Mo, Jie-Ping & Wang, Ping, 2002. "Market frictions, technology adoption and economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 1927-1954, September.
    2. Raymond Riezman & Ping Wang, 2009. "Preference Bias and Outsourcing to Market: A Steady‐State Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 338-356, May.
    3. M. Hsu & B‐L. Chen, 2000. "Labor productivity of small and large manufacturing firms: the case of Taiwan," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(3), pages 270-283, July.
    4. Gerard van der Meijden & Sjak Smulders, 2014. "Carbon Lock-In: The Role of Expectations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-100/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Jul 2016.
    5. Peng, Shin-Kun & Thisse, Jacques-Francois & Wang, Ping, 2006. "Economic integration and agglomeration in a middle product economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 1-25, November.
    6. Been-Lon Chen, 2007. "Multiple BGPs in a Growth Model with Habit Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 25-48, February.
    7. Raymond Riezman & Ping Wang, 2009. "Preference Bias and Outsourcing to Market: A Steady-State Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(SI), pages 338-356, May.
    8. Jutta Roosen & David A. Hennessy & Thia C. Hennessy, 2004. "Seasonality, Capital Inflexibility, and the Industrialization of Animal Production," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 04-wp351, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    9. Been-Lon Chen & Mei Hsu & Chia-Hui Lu, 2007. "Status and Multiple Growth Regimes," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 07-A010, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    10. Schiopu, Ioana, 2015. "Technology adoption, human capital formation and income differences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 318-335.
    11. Iyigun, Murat F. & Owen, Ann L., 2006. "Experiencing change and the evolution of adaptive skills: Implications for economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 565-579, April.
    12. Been-Lon Chen & Shian-Yu Liao, 2015. "The Role of Agricultural Productivity on Structural Change," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 971-987, November.
    13. Wang, Ping & Xie, Danyang, 2004. "Activation of a modern industry," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 393-410, August.
    14. Edwin Lai & Raymond Riezman & Ping Wang, 2009. "Outsourcing of innovation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 38(3), pages 485-515, March.
    15. Yamada, Masao, 2004. "Industrialization and substitutability: a note," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1625-1634, June.
    16. Been-Lon Chen, 2003. "Tax Evasion in a Model of Endogenous Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 381-403, April.
    17. Murat F. Iyigun & Ann L. Owen, 1999. "From indoctrination to the culture of change: technological progress, adaptive skills, and the creativity of nations," International Finance Discussion Papers 642, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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