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Understanding Indonesia’S Macroeconomic Data: What Do We Know And What Are The Implications?

Author

Listed:
  • Susan Sunila Sharma

    (Deakin Business School)

  • Lutzardo Tobing

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Prayudhi Azwar

    (Bank Indonesia)

Abstract

Unit root properties of macroeconomic data are important for both econometric modeling and policymaking. The form of variables (whether they are a unit root process) helps determine the correct econometric model. Equally, the form of variables helps explain how they react to shocks (both internal and external). Macroeconomic time-series data are often at the forefront of shock analysis and econometric modeling. There is a growing research emphasis on Indonesia using time-series data; yet, there is limited understanding of the data characteristics and shock response of these data. Using an extensive dataset comprising 33 macroeconomic time-series variables, we provide an informative empirical analysis of unit root properties of this data. We find that, regardless of data frequency, empirical evidence of unit roots is mixed. Some data series respond quickly to shocks while others take more time. Almost all macroeconomic data suffer from structural breaks. We draw implications from these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Susan Sunila Sharma & Lutzardo Tobing & Prayudhi Azwar, 2018. "Understanding Indonesia’S Macroeconomic Data: What Do We Know And What Are The Implications?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(2), pages 1-36, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:21:y:2018:i:2:p:1-36
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v21i2.967
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Prabheesh, K.P. & Sasongko, Aryo & Indawan, Fiskara, 2023. "Did the policy responses influence credit and business cycle co-movement during the COVID-19 crisis? Evidence from Indonesia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 243-255.
    2. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2020. "Consumer confidence and consumption expenditure in Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 367-377.
    3. Prabheesh, K.P. & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Juhro, Solikin M., 2021. "The dynamics of global financial cycle and domestic economic cycles: Evidence from India and Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 831-842.
    4. Devpura, Neluka & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2019. "Structural instability and predictability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Rath, Badri Narayan & Syarifuddin, Ferry, 2022. "Understanding the role of trade agreements in Indonesia’s FDI," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Thuraisamy, Kannan & Laila, Nisful, 2019. "Is Indonesia's stock market different when it comes to predictability?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Iyke, Bernard, 2019. "Do oil prices predict Indonesian macroeconomy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 2-12.
    8. Teck-Lee Wong & Wee-Yeap Lau & Tien-Ming Yip, 2020. "Cashless Payments and Economic Growth: Evidence from Selected OECD Countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 189-213.
    9. Khademalomoom, Siroos & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2020. "Intraday-of-the-week effects: What do the exchange rate data tell us?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    10. Solikin M. Juhro & Paresh Kumar Narayan & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2022. "Understanding monetary and fiscal policy rule interactions in Indonesia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(45), pages 5190-5208, September.
    11. Nur Annisa Hasniawati & Eva R. Lase & Akhis R. Hutabarat, 2020. "Indonesian Household Payment Choice: A Nested Logit Analysis," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 291-313.
    12. Darjana Darjana & Sudarso Kadero Wiryono & Deddy Priatmodjo Koesrindartoto, 2022. "Does Credit Performance Change In The Post- Covid-19? Evidence From Java Island, Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(2), pages 257-272, August.
    13. Kesavarajah Mayandy, 2019. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence From Sri Lanka," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 485-506.
    14. Susan Sunila Sharma & Ferry Syarifuddin, 2019. "Determinants Of Indonesia’S Income Velocity Of Money," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(3), pages 1-20, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unit root; Macroeconomic data; Structural breaks; Shocks; Econometric Modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models

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