IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/ijefaa/v8y2016i3p196-205.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dividend Changes and Future Profitability: Evidence from the Turkish Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Eyup Kadioglu
  • Nurcan Ocal

Abstract

Most of the previous studies on dividends in Turkey have focused on the effects of dividend announcements. There has been no study investigating the relation between dividend changes and the future profitability of firms. This study investigates this relation by using both ordinary and panel data regression on a data set consisting of 1,239 dividend payouts from 123 companies listed in Borsa Istanbul during the period 2004-2014. This study is unable to demonstrate that dividend changes are related to changes in future earnings. No evidence is found to support the dividend signaling theory, which claims that dividends serve as indicators of the future profitability of firms. On the other hand, future profitability is found to be strongly correlated with profitability in the previous year.

Suggested Citation

  • Eyup Kadioglu & Nurcan Ocal, 2016. "Dividend Changes and Future Profitability: Evidence from the Turkish Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(3), pages 196-205, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:8:y:2016:i:3:p:196-205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/56496/30793
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/56496
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gonedes, Nj, 1978. "Corporate Signaling, External Accounting, And Capital-Market Equilibrium - Evidence On Dividends, Income, And Extraordinary Items," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 26-79.
    2. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    3. Young M. Choi & Hyo K. Ju & Young K. Park, 2011. "Do dividend changes predict the future profitability of firms?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 51(4), pages 869-891, December.
    4. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely & Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 2005. "Dividend Changes Do Not Signal Changes in Future Profitability," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(5), pages 1659-1682, September.
    5. Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 1988. "Earnings information conveyed by dividend initiations and omissions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 149-175, September.
    6. Kursat Aydogan & Gulnur Muradoglu, 1998. "Do markets learn from experience? Price reaction to stock dividends in the Turkish market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 41-49.
    7. Watts, Ross, 1973. "The Information Content of Dividends," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(2), pages 191-211, April.
    8. Benartzi, Shlomo & Michaely, Roni & Thaler, Richard H, 1997. "Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1007-1034, July.
    9. Khaled Hussainey, 2009. "Do dividends signal information about future earnings?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1285-1288.
    10. Siew-Peng Lee & Mansor Isa & Wei-Ling Lim, 2012. "Dividend Changes and Future Profitability: Evidence From Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 8(2), pages 93-110.
    11. J. Randall Woolridge, 1982. "The Information Content Of Dividend Changes," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 5(3), pages 237-247, September.
    12. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    13. Laub, P Michael, 1976. "On the Informational Content of Dividends," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(1), pages 73-80, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Małgorzata Snarska & Tomasz K. Wisniewski & Andrzej Zygula, 2020. "Are Emerging Markets Efficient? Evidence from Informational Content of Dividend Changes in Polish Stock Market," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 687-717.
    2. Faruk Bostanci & Eyup Kadioglu & Guven Sayilgan, 2018. "Determinants of Dividend Payout Decisions: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of Turkish Stock Market," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Małgorzata Snarska & Tomasz K. Wisniewski & Andrzej Zygula, 2020. "Are Emerging Markets Efficient? Evidence from Informational Content of Dividend Changes in Polish Stock Market," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 687-717.
    2. Frankfurter, George M. & Wood, Bob Jr., 2002. "Dividend policy theories and their empirical tests," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 111-138.
    3. Dempsey, Stephen J. & Sheng, Hainan, 2023. "Dividend change announcements, ROE, and the cost of equity capital," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Naheed Rabbani, 2017. "The Announcement Effect of Cash Dividend Changes on Share Prices: Evidence from Dhaka Stock Exchange," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(04), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Wei Hao & Udomsak Wongchoti & Martin Young & Jianguo Chen, 2021. "R2 and the corporate signaling effect," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1353-1381, December.
    6. Alderson, Michael J. & Betker, Brian L. & Halford, Joseph T., 2021. "Fictitious dividend cuts in the CRSP data," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. H.Kent Baker & Gary E. Powell & E.Theodore Veit, 2002. "Revisiting the dividend puzzle," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), pages 241-261.
    8. Kenneth Khang & Tao‐Hsien Dolly King, 2006. "Does Dividend Policy Relate to Cross‐Sectional Variation in Information Asymmetry? Evidence from Returns to Insider Trades," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 71-94, December.
    9. Andreas Charitou & Neophytos Lambertides & Giorgos Theodoulou, 2010. "The Effect of Past Earnings and Dividend Patterns on the Information Content of Dividends When Earnings Are Reduced," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 46(2), pages 153-187, June.
    10. Abdullah AlGhazali & Khamis Hamed Al-Yahyaee & Richard Fairchild & Yilmaz Guney, 2024. "What do dividend changes reveal? Theory and evidence from a unique environment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 499-552, February.
    11. Blau, Benjamin M. & Fuller, Kathleen P., 2008. "Flexibility and dividends," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-152, April.
    12. Ham, Charles G. & Kaplan, Zachary R. & Leary, Mark T., 2020. "Do dividends convey information about future earnings?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 547-570.
    13. Ashiq Ali & Oktay Urcan, 2012. "Dividend increases and future earnings," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 12-25.
    14. Martin Kapons & Peter Kelly & Robert Stoumbos & Rafael Zambrana, 2023. "Dividends, trust, and firm value," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1354-1387, September.
    15. Ben Howatt & Richard Zuber & John Gandar & Reinhold Lamb, 2009. "Dividends, earnings volatility and information," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 551-562.
    16. Fairchild, Richard & Guney, Yilmaz & Thanatawee, Yordying, 2014. "Corporate dividend policy in Thailand: Theory and evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 129-151.
    17. Liu, Chinpiao & Chen, An-Sing, 2015. "Do firms use dividend changes to signal future profitability? A simultaneous equation analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 194-207.
    18. S. P. Kothari & Susan Shu & Peter D. Wysocki, 2009. "Do Managers Withhold Bad News?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 241-276, March.
    19. Arturo, Ramirez Verdugo, 2004. "Dividend Signaling and Unions," MPRA Paper 2273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Oct 2006.
    20. Gary A. Benesh & Arthur J. Keown & John M. Pinkerton, 1984. "An Examination Of Market Reaction To Substantial Shifts In Dividend Policy," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 7(2), pages 131-142, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    dividend changes; future profitability; information content of dividend; dividend signaling theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:8:y:2016:i:3:p:196-205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.