Research on Spatial Differentiation of Housing Prices Along the Rail Transit Lines in Qingdao City Based on Multi-Scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) Analysis

Urban sprawl and excessive reliance on motorization have led to many urban problems. The balance of supply and demand in the real estate market, as well as price fluctuations, also face many challenges. Urban rail transit not only alleviates traffic congestion and air pollution, but also significantly reduces residents’ commuting time, broadens urban accessibility, and reshapes the decision-making basis for residents when choosing residential locations. This study takes the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 8th, 11th, and 13th metro lines that have been opened in Qingdao City as examples. It selects 12,924 residential samples within a 2 km radius along the rail transit lines. By using GIS spatial analysis tools and the multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model, it analyzes the spatial differentiation characteristics of housing prices along the rail transit lines and the reasons and mechanisms behind them. The empirical results show that housing prices decrease to varying degrees with the increase in the distance from the rail transit. For every additional 1 km from the rail transit station, the housing price increases by 0.246%. Through model comparison, it was found that MGWR has a better fitting degree than the traditional ordinary least squares method (OLS) and the previous geographically weighted regression model (GWR), and reveals the spatial heterogeneity of the influence of urban rail transit on housing prices. Different indicator elements have different effects on housing prices along these lines. The urban rail transit factor in the location characteristics has a positive impact on housing prices, and has a significant negative correlation in some areas. The significant influence range of the distance to the nearest metro station on housing prices is concentrated within a radius of 373 m, and the effect decays beyond this range. The total floors, building area, green coverage rate, property management fee, and the distance to hospitals and parks in the neighborhood and structural characteristics have spatial heterogeneity. Analyzing the areas affected by the urban rail transit factor, it was found that the double location superposition effect, the networked transportation system, and the agglomeration of urban functional axes are important reasons for the significant phenomena in some local areas. This research provides a scientific basis for optimizing the sustainable development of rail transit in Qingdao and formulating differentiated housing policies. Meanwhile, it expands the application of the MGWR model in sustainable urban spatial governance and has practical significance for other cities to achieve sustainable urban development.