Accounting of Grassland Ecosystem Assets and Assessment of Sustainable Development Potential in the Bosten Lake Basin

Assessing the ecosystem service value (ESV) of grasslands is crucial for sustainable resource management and environmental conservation. This study evaluates the spatiotemporal changes in grassland ecosystem services in the Bosten Lake Basin using long-term land use data (2000–2022). Employing the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, we develop three future scenarios—natural development, ecological protection, and economic priority—to predict grassland utilization trends. The findings reveal a continuous decline in grassland area and ecosystem service values, driven by climate change and human activities. Compared with 2022, all three scenarios indicate further degradation, but ecological protection measures significantly mitigate ESV loss. This study provides scientific insights for sustainable land management and policy-making, contributing to ecological restoration strategies under climate change impacts. The findings reveal the following: (1) Over the 22-year period, the grassland area in the Bosten Lake Basin has experienced an overall decline. Notably, the area of plain desert steppe grassland expanded from 626,179.41 ha to 1,223,506.62 ha, whereas plain meadow grassland reduced from 556,784.64 ha to 118,948.23 ha. (2) The total ecosystem service value of grasslands in the basin exhibited a marginally insignificant decrease, amounting to a reduction of 5.73422 billion CNY. The values for mountain desert, mountain desert steppe, mountain typical steppe, and mountain meadow grasslands were relatively low and showed minimal change. (3) In comparison to 2022, the projected areas of grassland under the three scenarios for 2000 show a substantial reduction, particularly in plain desert and hilly desert grasslands. The ecosystem service values across all scenarios are expected to decline in tandem with varying degrees of grassland degradation. This research underscores the impact of global warming and human activities on the shrinking grassland area and the diminishing ecosystem service values in the Bosten Lake Basin. The current state of grassland resources in the study area is under threat, highlighting the urgent need for strategic planning and conservation efforts to ensure sustainable development and ecological integrity.