Factors Influencing Water Point Functionality in Liberia: A Regression and Bayesian Network Analysis

Maintaining functional rural community water supply is a persistent challenge across Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Liberia. This study examined the determinants of hand pump functionality in Liberia using a comprehensive dataset from the Liberian Government. We analyzed 11,065 Afridev hand pumps using regression and Bayesian network models. Water points managed by local and institutional entities had substantially higher odds of being functional than those with no management (adjusted OR 3.73 and 2.89), while WASH committees showed a smaller increase (OR 2.43). Pump part damage significantly reduced functionality (undamaged vs. damaged, OR: 10.46. Faster repair was an important determinant, with odds of functionality up to 6.37 times higher. The availability of a trained mechanic with a modest toolkit modestly improved odds (OR 1.25), and proximity to spare parts suppliers played a role (second quartile vs. farthest quartile, OR 1.57). We quantified the impact of service delivery: posterior odds that a water point is functional under the most ideal conditions were four times those under the least ideal conditions. These findings underscore the importance of effective management and prompt repairs to maintain the functionality of water infrastructure. These insights can guide improvements in Liberia and other regions facing similar challenges.