IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i19p8660-d1758837.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Huairou District (China): A Scenario Analysis Based on the LEAP Model

Author

Listed:
  • Xuezhi Liu

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Tingting Qiu

    (National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing 100035, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Yi Xie

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Qiuyue Yin

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China)

Abstract

With increasingly severe global climate change, reducing carbon emissions has become an important way to promote sustainable development. However, few scholars have researched carbon emissions and carbon reduction in the Huairou district, Beijing, China. Based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model, this study sets four scenarios, including a baseline scenario (BAS), an industrial structure upgrading scenario (Indus), a technological progress scenario (Tech), and a comprehensive transformation scenario (COM), to simulate the long-term annual carbon emissions of Huairou district from 2021 to 2060. The results indicate that all four scenarios could realize the target of carbon peaking by 2030. Among them, the peak carbon emissions under the Indus scenario are the highest (2608.26 kilotons), while the peak under the COM scenario is the lowest (2126.58 kilotons). Moreover, by distinguishing the carbon emissions of sectors, it can be found that the commercial sector is the largest source of carbon emissions. The proportion of carbon emissions from the industrial sector will decline, while that from the urban household sector will increase. Furthermore, the analysis of the carbon emission reduction potential of sectors reveals that the commercial and industrial sectors have the greatest potential for carbon emission reduction in the medium term. However, the focus of carbon emission reduction needs to shift towards the commercial and urban household sectors in the long term. This study could provide references for formulating carbon emission reduction pathways and realizing sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Xuezhi Liu & Tingting Qiu & Yi Xie & Qiuyue Yin, 2025. "Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Huairou District (China): A Scenario Analysis Based on the LEAP Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:19:p:8660-:d:1758837
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/19/8660/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/19/8660/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yang, Dewei & Liu, Dandan & Huang, Anmin & Lin, Jianyi & Xu, Lingxing, 2021. "Critical transformation pathways and socio-environmental benefits of energy substitution using a LEAP scenario modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Bijay B. Pradhan & Ram M. Shrestha & Bundit Limmeechokchai, 2020. "Achieving the Paris Agreement’s 2 degree target in Nepal: the potential role of a carbon tax," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 387-404, March.
    3. Li, Shanshan & Kong, Weiling & Wang, Yujie & Yuan, Liang, 2024. "Medium and long-term energy demand forecasts by sectors in China under the goal of “carbon peaking & carbon neutrality”: Based on the LEAP-China model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    4. Tao Song & Xinling Zou & Nuo Wang & Danyang Zhang & Yuxiang Zhao & Erdan Wang, 2023. "Prediction of China’s Carbon Peak Attainment Pathway from Both Production-Side and Consumption-Side Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Cai, Liya & Luo, Ji & Wang, Minghui & Guo, Jianfeng & Duan, Jinglin & Li, Jingtao & Li, Shuo & Liu, Liting & Ren, Dangpei, 2023. "Pathways for municipalities to achieve carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality: A study based on the LEAP model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    6. Tang, Baojun & Li, Ru & Yu, Biying & An, Runying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2018. "How to peak carbon emissions in China's power sector: A regional perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 365-381.
    7. Xiaodie Liu & Xiangqian Wang & Xiangrui Meng, 2023. "Carbon Emission Scenario Prediction and Peak Path Selection in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-17, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miao, Ankang & Yuan, Yue & Wu, Han & Ma, Xin & Shao, Chenyu & Xiang, Sheng, 2024. "Pathway for China's provincial carbon emission peak: A case study of the Jiangsu Province," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    2. El-Sayed, Ahmed Hassan A. & Khalil, Adel & Yehia, Mohamed, 2023. "Modeling alternative scenarios for Egypt 2050 energy mix based on LEAP analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    3. Wang, Zhiwei & Huang, Chunlin & Zhang, Ying & Zhong, Fanglei & Li, Weide, 2024. "Tackling carbon peak and carbon neutrality challenges: A method with long-range energy alternatives planning system and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    4. Shi, Changfeng & Zhi, Jiaqi & Yao, Xiao & Zhang, Hong & Yu, Yue & Zeng, Qingshun & Li, Luji & Zhang, Yuxi, 2023. "How can China achieve the 2030 carbon peak goal—a crossover analysis based on low-carbon economics and deep learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    5. Junjie Wang & Yuan Li & Yi Zhang, 2022. "Research on Carbon Emissions of Road Traffic in Chengdu City Based on a LEAP Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, May.
    6. Li, Xi & Yu, Biying, 2019. "Peaking CO2 emissions for China's urban passenger transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Sun, Xiaohang & Duan, Haiyan & Song, Junnian & Zheng, Heran & Yang, Wei & Mi, Zhifu, 2024. "Carbon peaking trajectory links to development of a coupled urbanization-industrialization-energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    8. Jia, Min & Zhang, Zhe & Zhang, Li & Zhao, Liang & Lu, Xinbo & Li, Linyan & Ruan, Jianhui & Wu, Yunlong & He, Zhuoming & Liu, Mei & Jiang, Lingling & Gao, Yajing & Wu, Pengcheng & Zhu, Shuying & Niu, M, 2024. "Optimization of electricity generation and assessment of provincial grid emission factors from 2020 to 2060 in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    9. Yuanying Chi & Wenbing Zhou & Songlin Tang & Yu Hu, 2022. "Driving Factors of CO 2 Emissions in China’s Power Industry: Relative Importance Analysis Based on Spatial Durbin Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-15, April.
    10. Zhang, Boqun & Wang, Yuanfeng & Pan, Lei & Guo, Xiaohui & Liu, Yinshan & Shi, Chengcheng & Xue, Shaoqin & Wang, Liping & Chang, Xinlei & Fan, Lei, 2025. "Net zero carbon park planning framework: Methodology, application, and economic feasibility analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    11. Cui, Qi & He, Ling & Han, Guoyi & Chen, Hao & Cao, Juanjuan, 2020. "Review on climate and water resource implications of reducing renewable power curtailment in China: A nexus perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    12. Zhang, Yun-Long & Liu, Lan-Cui & Kang, Jia-Ning & Peng, Song & Mi, Zhifu & Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2024. "Economic feasibility assessment of coal-biomass co-firing power generation technology," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    13. Lyu Jun & Shuang Lu & Xiang Li & Zeng Li & Chenglong Cao, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Industrial Carbon Emission Efficiency and Their Impacts from Digital Economy at Chinese Prefecture-Level Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-17, September.
    14. Lu, Binbin & Dong, Jintao & Wang, Chun & Sun, Huabo & Yao, Hongyu, 2024. "High-resolution spatio-temporal estimation of CO2 emissions from China's civil aviation industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    15. Huo, Tengfei & Du, Qianxi & Xu, Linbo & Shi, Qingwei & Cong, Xiaobo & Cai, Weiguang, 2023. "Timetable and roadmap for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality of China's building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    16. Shaobin Zhang & Hao Ji & Maoxi Tian & Binyao Wang, 2025. "High-dimensional nonlinear dependence and risk spillovers analysis between China’s carbon market and its major influence factors," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 345(2), pages 831-860, February.
    17. Mina Masoomi & Mostafa Panahi & Reza Samadi, 2022. "Demand side management for electricity in Iran: cost and emission analysis using LEAP modeling framework," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 5667-5693, April.
    18. Luo, Shihua & Hu, Weihao & Liu, Wen & Zhang, Zhenyuan & Bai, Chunguang & Huang, Qi & Chen, Zhe, 2022. "Study on the decarbonization in China's power sector under the background of carbon neutrality by 2060," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    19. Wu, C.B. & Guan, P.B. & Zhong, L.N. & Lv, J. & Hu, X.F. & Huang, G.H. & Li, C.C., 2020. "An optimized low-carbon production planning model for power industry in coal-dependent regions - A case study of Shandong, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    20. Wang, Peng-Tao & Xu, Qing-Chuang & Wang, Fei-Yin & Xu, Mao, 2024. "Investigating the impacts of the Dual Carbon Targets on energy and carbon flows in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:19:p:8660-:d:1758837. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.