Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Huairou District (China): A Scenario Analysis Based on the LEAP Model

With increasingly severe global climate change, reducing carbon emissions has become an important way to promote sustainable development. However, few scholars have researched carbon emissions and carbon reduction in the Huairou district, Beijing, China. Based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model, this study sets four scenarios, including a baseline scenario (BAS), an industrial structure upgrading scenario (Indus), a technological progress scenario (Tech), and a comprehensive transformation scenario (COM), to simulate the long-term annual carbon emissions of Huairou district from 2021 to 2060. The results indicate that all four scenarios could realize the target of carbon peaking by 2030. Among them, the peak carbon emissions under the Indus scenario are the highest (2608.26 kilotons), while the peak under the COM scenario is the lowest (2126.58 kilotons). Moreover, by distinguishing the carbon emissions of sectors, it can be found that the commercial sector is the largest source of carbon emissions. The proportion of carbon emissions from the industrial sector will decline, while that from the urban household sector will increase. Furthermore, the analysis of the carbon emission reduction potential of sectors reveals that the commercial and industrial sectors have the greatest potential for carbon emission reduction in the medium term. However, the focus of carbon emission reduction needs to shift towards the commercial and urban household sectors in the long term. This study could provide references for formulating carbon emission reduction pathways and realizing sustainable development.