Research on the Trade-Off and Synergy Relationship of Ecosystem Services in Major Water Source Basin Under the Influence of Land Use Change

Clarifying the trade-offs and synergies between land use and ecosystem services in major water source river basins is enhancing regional land resource distribution and safeguarding water-related ecological environments. The Danjiangkou Reservoir Basin—the water source area of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project—land use change characteristics from 2012 to 2022 were focused on in this study. Five categories of ecosystem services, represented by six land use-related indicators, were selected for analysis. The InVEST model was utilized to conduct a quantitative assessment of their spatial and temporal variations. This study investigates the spatial variations of ecosystem services, analyzes their trade-offs and synergies, and explores the impacts of land use changes on the supply and interactions of these services. The findings reveal that cultivated land was served as the dominant source of land use conversion. Specifically, the largest areas of cultivated land conversion were to forest land (240.91 km 2 ), followed by water bodies (144.65 km 2 ) and construction land (38.43 km 2 ). The selected ecosystem services exhibited distinct temporal and spatial variation: water yield, total carbon storage, and habitat quality showed upward trends, whereas total nitrogen output, total phosphorus output, and soil erosion demonstrated declining trends. Overall, the synergy and trade-off relationships among the six ecosystem service indicators weakened; however, the degree of improvement in trade-offs exceeded the decline in synergies. The integration of land use change, ecosystem service functions, and trade-off/synergy relationships into a unified analytical framework facilitates a robust theoretical foundation for basin-scale ecological management. This approach offers a scientific foundation for spatial optimization, ecological redline delineation, and resource allocation within the basin.