Spatial Correlation of Agricultural New Productive Forces and Strong Agricultural Province in Anhui Province of China

Developing agricultural new productive forces (ANPF) according to local conditions is a key strategy for agricultural modernization. Using panel data from 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2022, this study constructed indicator systems for ANPF and the construction of a strong agricultural province (CSAP). The entropy-weight TOPSIS method was used to calculate the levels of ANPF and the SAP index. This study employed a modified gravity model and social network analysis (SNA) to investigate the spatial correlation and evolutionary characteristics of these networks. Geographical detectors were also used to identify the driving factors behind agricultural transformation. The findings indicate that both ANPF and CSAP showed an upward trend during the study period, with significant regional heterogeneity, with Central Anhui being the most prominent. This study revealed spatial spillover effects and strong network correlations between ANPF and CSAP, with the spatial network structure exhibiting characteristics of multi-core, multi-association, and multidimensional connections. The entities within the network are tightly connected, with no “isolated island” phenomenon, and Hefei, as the central hub, showed the highest number of connections. Laborer quality, tangible means of production, and new-quality industries emerged as the core driving forces, working in synergy to propel CSAP. This study contributes new insights into the spatial network dynamics of agricultural development and offers actionable recommendations for policymakers to enhance agricultural modernization globally.