Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change, Land Conversion, and Management Measures on Key Ecosystem Services in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: A Case Study of Inner Mongolia, China

Inner Mongolia, a typical arid and semi-arid region in northern China, has undergone significant ecological transformation over the past two decades through climate shifts and large-scale ecological restoration projects. However, the relative contributions of climate and anthropogenic drivers to these ecological changes have not been sufficiently quantified. This study presents a comprehensive quantitative evaluation of the relative contributions of climate change, land conversion, and ecological management to changes in four critical ecosystem services—carbon sequestration, hydrological regulation, soil and water conservation, and windbreak and sand fixation—between 2001 and 2020. Using the residual trend method—a technique to separate climate-driven from human-induced effects—we further decomposed human influence into land conversion and management components. The results show that climate change was the primary driver, enhancing carbon sequestration and hydrological regulation but negatively impacting erosion control, with contributions often over 90%. In contrast, human activities had more spatially variable effects; while land conversion improved several services, it also heightened the vulnerability of sand fixation functions. The analysis further revealed ecosystem-type-specific responses, where grasslands and deserts responded better to management measures and forests and croplands showed greater improvements from land conversion. These findings offer crucial insights into the differentiated mechanisms and outcomes of ecological interventions, providing a scientific basis for optimizing restoration strategies and achieving sustainable ecosystem governance in climate-sensitive regions.