Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of NPP in the LanXi Urban Agglomeration from 2000 to 2023

This study quantitatively evaluates the effects of human activities (HAs) and climate change (CC) on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle, providing a scientific basis for ecosystem management and the formulation of sustainable development policies in urban agglomerations located in arid and ecotone regions. Using the LanXi urban agglomeration in China as a case study, we simulated the spatiotemporal variation of vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) from 2000 to 2023 based on MODIS remote sensing data and the CASA model. Trend analysis and the Hurst index were employed to identify the dynamic trends and persistence of NPP. Furthermore, the Geographical Detector model with optimized parameters, along with nonlinear residual analysis, was employed to investigate the driving mechanisms and relative contributions of HAs and CC to NPP variation. The results indicate that NPP in the LanXi urban agglomeration exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with an average annual increase of 4.26 gC/m 2 per year. Spatially, this trend followed a pattern of “higher in the center, lower in the east and west,” with more than 95% of the region showing an increase in NPP. Precipitation, mean annual temperature, evapotranspiration, and land use types were identified as the primary driving factors of NPP change. The interaction among these factors demonstrated a stronger explanatory power through factor coupling. Compared with linear residual analysis, the nonlinear model showed clear advantages, indicating that vegetation NPP in the LanXi urban agglomeration was jointly influenced by HAs and CC. These findings can further act as a basis for resource and environmental research in similar ecotone regions globally, such as Central Asia, the Mediterranean Basin, the southwestern United States, and North Africa.