Multi-Scenario Simulations of “Production–Living–Ecological” Functional Patterns and Ecological Effects in the Upper Reaches of Huaihe River

Taking the upper reaches of Huaihe River (UHR) as a research area, based on land use types data with 30 m resolution from 1980 to 2020, the changes in “production–living–ecological space” (PLE) and eco-environmental quality (EQ) in UHR from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed by using the eco-environmental effect evaluation method. Meanwhile, the PLUS model was applied to simulate and forecast the future scenarios for the data of 2010 and 2020, and the data for 2030–2050 under three situations of business as usual, ecological protection, and production priority were obtained, and the changing pattern of PLE and the change in EQ under each scenario were analyzed. Results: (1) From 1980 to 2020, the production and ecological space area in UHR presented a downward–upward–downward tendency and the living space area continued to increase. (2) From 1980 to 2020, the eco-environmental quality index (EV) presented a down–up tendency, and the expansion of lower eco-quality areas was obvious. The conversion of agricultural production (AP) and forest ecological (FE) is the main factor affecting environmental quality change. (3) Under the business as usual and production priority scenarios, the production and ecological space continues to reduce, and the living space continues to augment, but the production space area in the production priority situation is the least in three scenarios. Under the ecological protection scenario, the production space keeps reducing, and the ecological and living space keep increasing. (4) The ecological protection situation has the uppermost EV in three scenarios. The research can provide a scientific basis for territorial spatial planning and sustainable development of UHR.