Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of LULC Change and Ecosystem Service Value in Guangdong: A Perspective of Food Security

Amid global efforts to balance sustainable development and food security, ecosystem service value (ESV), a critical bridge between natural systems and human well-being, has gained increasing importance. This study explores the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of land use changes and ESV from a food security perspective, aiming to inform synergies between ecological protection and food production for regional sustainability. Using Guangdong Province as a case study, we analyze ESV patterns and spatial correlations from 2005 to 2023 based on three-phase land use and socioeconomic datasets. Key findings: I. Forestland and cropland dominate Guangdong’s land use, which is marked by the expansion of construction land and the shrinking of agricultural and forest areas. II. Overall ESV declined slightly: northern ecological zones remained stable, while eastern/western regions saw mild decreases, with cropland loss threatening grain self-sufficiency. III. Irrigation scale, forestry output, and fertilizer use exhibited strong interactive effects on ESV, whereas urban hierarchy influenced ESV independently. IV. ESV showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation, with stable agglomeration patterns across the province. The research provides policy insights for optimizing cropland protection and enhancing coordination between food production spaces and ecosystem services, while offering theoretical support for land use regulation and agricultural resilience in addressing regional food security challenges.