IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i8p3485-d1380187.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation of Urban Land Suitability under Multiple Sea Level Rise Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Chenxin Ruan

    (Department of Regional and Urban Planning, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

  • Fang Wei

    (Center for Balance Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

Abstract

Anticipated sea level rises from global climate change pose a significant flood risk to urban land. Evaluating urban land suitability under sea level rise scenarios is crucial for promoting sustainable development. Recent research has advanced the application of artificial intelligence and the integration of GIS with models, yet the impact of climate change on land suitability has often been overlooked. This study focuses on Xihu District in Hangzhou, utilizing the entropy weight and matter-element model to evaluate land suitability for urban development. The evaluation results were cross-verified with land use plans. A comprehensive analysis of potential flood risk to urban land in 2100 was conducted, considering varying degrees of sea level rise under Sustainable Development Scenario SSP1-2.6 and High-end Emission Scenario SSP5-8.5, as well as the scenario reflecting the most severe sea level rise during extreme climate events. The results indicate that more than half of the land in the study area is suitable for construction, aligning spatially with the current planned urban land. The analysis process of the matter-element model reflects the impact level of each indicator on urban land suitability, conveying information both spatially and numerically, thus enhancing accuracy. Scenario analysis reveals that approximately 10% to 20% of urban land in the study area could face flooding threats due to future sea level rises, primarily in the northern and southeastern regions. Recommendations for future land development and spatial planning strategies to address flood risk are discussed, aiming to alleviate the pressure on urban land in response to future climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Chenxin Ruan & Fang Wei, 2024. "Evaluation of Urban Land Suitability under Multiple Sea Level Rise Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-19, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:8:p:3485-:d:1380187
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/8/3485/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/8/3485/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leibowicz, Benjamin D., 2020. "Urban land use and transportation planning for climate change mitigation: A theoretical framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(2), pages 604-616.
    2. Avashia, Vidhee & Garg, Amit, 2020. "Implications of land use transitions and climate change on local flooding in urban areas: An assessment of 42 Indian cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    3. Hong Lv & Xinjian Guan & Yu Meng, 2020. "Comprehensive evaluation of urban flood-bearing risks based on combined compound fuzzy matter-element and entropy weight model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 1823-1841, September.
    4. Mokarram, Marzieh & Mirsoleimani, Abbas, 2018. "Using Fuzzy-AHP and order weight average (OWA) methods for land suitability determination for citrus cultivation in ArcGIS (Case study: Fars province, Iran)," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 506-518.
    5. Wenjun Li & Peng Li & Zhiming Feng & Chiwei Xiao, 2022. "GIS-Based Modeling of Human Settlement Suitability for the Belt and Road Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-17, May.
    6. Andrew Macintosh & Anita Foerster & Jan McDonald, 2015. "Policy design, spatial planning and climate change adaptation: a case study from Australia," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(8), pages 1432-1453, August.
    7. Ustaoglu, E. & Aydınoglu, A.C., 2020. "Suitability evaluation of urban construction land in Pendik district of Istanbul, Turkey," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    8. Ziqian Kang & Shuo Wang & Ling Xu & Fenglin Yang & Shushen Zhang, 2021. "Suitability assessment of urban land use in Dalian, China using PNN and GIS," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 913-936, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bing Kuang & Jinjin Liu & Xiangyu Fan, 2022. "Has China’s Low-Carbon City Construction Enhanced the Green Utilization Efficiency of Urban Land?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Xiaobo Liu & Yukuan Wang & Ming Li, 2021. "How to Identify Future Priority Areas for Urban Development: An Approach of Urban Construction Land Suitability in Ecological Sensitive Areas," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Boucekkine, Raouf & Fabbri, Giorgio & Federico, Salvatore & Gozzi, Fausto, 2021. "From firm to global-level pollution control: The case of transboundary pollution," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(1), pages 331-345.
    4. Abdelmonaim Okacha & Adil Salhi & Kamal Abdelrahman & Hamid Fattasse & Kamal Lahrichi & Kaoutar Bakhouya & Biraj Kanti Mondal, 2024. "Balancing Environmental and Human Needs: Geographic Information System-Based Analytical Hierarchy Process Land Suitability Planning for Emerging Urban Areas in Bni Bouayach Amid Urban Transformation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-24, July.
    5. Yan, Xiang & Xin, Boqing & Cheng, Changgao & Han, Zhiyong, 2024. "Unpacking energy consumption in China's urbanization: Industry development, population growth, and spatial expansion," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    6. Tongde Chen & Juying Jiao & Lingling Wang & Wei Wei & Chunjing Zhao & Shuwei Wei, 2024. "Evaluation and Promotion of Alluvial Fan Land Suitability for Agriculture in the Lhasa River Basin, Qinghai–Tibet Plateau," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-22, July.
    7. Yanru Zhao & Xiaomin Zhao & Xinyi Huang & Jiaxin Guo & Guohui Chen, 2022. "Identifying a Period of Spatial Land Use Conflicts and Their Driving Forces in the Pearl River Delta," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Héctor José Peinado Guevara & Mauro Espinoza Ortiz & Víctor Manuel Peinado Guevara & Jaime Herrera Barrientos & Jesús Alberto Peinado Guevara & Omar Delgado Rodríguez & Manuel de Jesús Pellegrini Cerv, 2022. "Potential Flood Risk in the City of Guasave, Sinaloa, the Effects of Population Growth, and Modifications to the Topographic Relief," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, May.
    9. Timuçin Everest, 2021. "Suitable site selection for pistachio (Pistacia vera) by using GIS and multi-criteria decision analyses (a case study in Turkey)," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 7686-7705, May.
    10. Keyu Luo & Zhenyu Wang & Wei Sha & Jiansheng Wu & Hongliang Wang & Qingliang Zhu, 2021. "Integrating Sponge City Concept and Neural Network into Land Suitability Assessment: Evidence from a Satellite Town of Shenzhen Metropolitan Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, August.
    11. İsa Çal & Ayşen Ciravoğlu, 2024. "Determining Vulnerability Indicators of Buildings for Sea-Level Rise and Floods in Urban Coastal Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-30, December.
    12. Nawnit Kumar & Xiaoli Liu & Sanjena Narayanasamydamodaran & Kamlesh Kumar Pandey, 2021. "A Systematic Review Comparing Urban Flood Management Practices in India to China’s Sponge City Program," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-30, June.
    13. Xiaoyun Sun & Guotao Zhang & Jiao Wang & Chaoyue Li & Shengnan Wu & Yao Li, 2022. "Spatiotemporal variation of flash floods in the Hengduan Mountains region affected by rainfall properties and land use," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 465-488, March.
    14. Zhihui Li & Keyu Song & Lu Peng, 2021. "Flood Risk Assessment under Land Use and Climate Change in Wuhan City of the Yangtze River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, August.
    15. Yu Chen & Shuangshuang Liu & Wenbo Ma & Qian Zhou, 2023. "Assessment of the Carrying Capacity and Suitability of Spatial Resources and the Environment and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors in the Yellow River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-26, February.
    16. Raphael Karutz & Christian J. A. Klassert & Sigrun Kabisch, 2023. "On Farmland and Floodplains—Modeling Urban Growth Impacts Based on Global Population Scenarios in Pune, India," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, May.
    17. Guangpeng Zhang & Li Zhang & Alim Samat & Yin Wu & Wa Cao & Kaiyue Luo, 2025. "Evaluation of Land Suitability for Construction in the Turpan–Hami Region Based on the Integration of the MaxEnt Model and Regional Planning," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, April.
    18. Xufeng Cui & Tingting Zhou & Xinxing Xiong & Jiaqi Xiong & Jing Zhang & Yuehua Jiang, 2022. "Farmland Suitability Evaluation Oriented by Non-Agriculturalization Sensitivity: A Case Study of Hubei Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, March.
    19. Zhong, Shaopeng & Jiang, Yu & Nielsen, Otto Anker, 2022. "Lexicographic multi-objective road pricing optimization considering land use and transportation effects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 496-509.
    20. Elissa Waters & Jon Barnett, 2018. "Spatial imaginaries of adaptation governance: A public perspective," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 36(4), pages 708-725, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:8:p:3485-:d:1380187. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.