The Sustainability of Island Tourism during Climate Change: The Case of Hawaii, United States

The purpose of this study is to explore the sustainability of island tourism by investigating the increasingly dangerous climate conditions that tourists encounter under climate change. The exploratory case of Hawaii, United States is offered to explore how thermal stress risks have (1) changed as a process of climate change and (2) are associated with airport arrivals of domestic tourists from states other than Hawaii (dependent variable). Hawaii is a destination-based island in the lower-latitudes of the Pacific Ocean that attracts more tourists than many stand-alone countries. Thermal stress—our independent variable—is a climate measure for heat exposure and has medically prescribed levels (°C) for heat-related risks to recreationalists and workers. The findings indicate that (1) thermal stress is increasing as a process of climate change over the past four decades (1984–2023), (2) moderate thermal stress risks are positively related to tourists’ demand (2015–2023), and (3) moderate thermal stress risks are more strongly related to tourists’ demand than lower risk levels. The results suggest that despite increased thermal stress, the demand for tourists’ arrivals remains sustainable for Hawaii. Though not significant, we also observed a decline in tourists’ arrivals with moderately high thermal stress risks. Implications are broken down for each of the sustainable tourism stakeholders: visitors, communities, industry, and the natural environment.