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Long-Term Scenario Analysis of Electricity Supply and Demand in Iran: Time Series Analysis, Renewable Electricity Development, Energy Efficiency and Conservation

Author

Listed:
  • Mahdi Asadi

    (Department of Energy Systems Engineering, School of Advanced Technologies, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran 16846-13114, Iran)

  • Iman Larki

    (Department of Energy Systems Engineering, School of Advanced Technologies, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran 16846-13114, Iran)

  • Mohammad Mahdi Forootan

    (Department of Energy Systems Engineering, School of Advanced Technologies, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran 16846-13114, Iran)

  • Rouhollah Ahmadi

    (Department of Energy Systems Engineering, School of Advanced Technologies, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran 16846-13114, Iran)

  • Meisam Farajollahi

    (Department of Energy Systems Engineering, School of Advanced Technologies, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran 16846-13114, Iran)

Abstract

Electricity plays a vital role in the economic development and welfare of countries. Examining the electricity situation and defining scenarios for developing power plant infrastructure will help countries avoid misguided policies that incur high costs and reduce people’s welfare. In the present research, three scenarios from 2021–2040 have been defined for Iran’s electricity status. The first scenario continues the current trend and forecasts population, electricity consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions from power plants with ARIMA and single and triple exponential smoothing time series algorithms. As part of the second scenario, only non-hydro renewable resources will be used to increase the electricity supply. By ensuring the existence of potential, annual growth patterns have been defined, taking into account the renewable electricity generation achieved by successful nations. The third scenario involves integrating operating gas turbines into combined cycles in exchange for buyback contracts. Economically, this scenario calculates return on investment through an arrangement of various contracts for the seller company and fuel savings for the buyer.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahdi Asadi & Iman Larki & Mohammad Mahdi Forootan & Rouhollah Ahmadi & Meisam Farajollahi, 2023. "Long-Term Scenario Analysis of Electricity Supply and Demand in Iran: Time Series Analysis, Renewable Electricity Development, Energy Efficiency and Conservation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-24, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:5:p:4618-:d:1088019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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