IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i4p2941-d1059533.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short Term Power Load Forecasting Based on PSVMD-CGA Model

Author

Listed:
  • Jingming Su

    (School of Electrical and Information Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China)

  • Xuguang Han

    (School of Electrical and Information Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China)

  • Yan Hong

    (School of Electrical and Information Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China)

Abstract

Short-term power load forecasting is critical for ensuring power system stability. A new algorithm that combines CNN, GRU, and an attention mechanism with the Sparrow algorithm to optimize variational mode decomposition (PSVMD–CGA) is proposed to address the problem of the effect of random load fluctuations on the accuracy of short-term load forecasting. To avoid manual selection of VMD parameters, the Sparrow algorithm is adopted to optimize VMD by decomposing short-term power load data into multiple subsequences, thus significantly reducing the volatility of load data. Subsequently, the CNN (Convolution Neural Network) is introduced to address the fact that the GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) is difficult to use to extract high-dimensional power load features. Finally, the attention mechanism is selected to address the fact that when the data sequence is too long, important information cannot be weighted highly. On the basis of the original GRU model, the PSVMD–CGA model suggested in this paper has been considerably enhanced. MAE has dropped by 288.8%, MAPE has dropped by 3.46%, RMSE has dropped by 326.1 MW, and R2 has risen to 0.99. At the same time, various evaluation indicators show that the PSVMD–CGA model outperforms the SSA–VMD–CGA and GA–VMD–CGA models.

Suggested Citation

  • Jingming Su & Xuguang Han & Yan Hong, 2023. "Short Term Power Load Forecasting Based on PSVMD-CGA Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-23, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:4:p:2941-:d:1059533
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/4/2941/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/4/2941/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yu, Jingxin & Zhang, Xin & Xu, Linlin & Dong, Jing & Zhangzhong, Lili, 2021. "A hybrid CNN-GRU model for predicting soil moisture in maize root zone," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    2. Eduardo Machado & Tiago Pinto & Vanessa Guedes & Hugo Morais, 2021. "Electrical Load Demand Forecasting Using Feed-Forward Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-24, November.
    3. Yu Jin & Honggang Guo & Jianzhou Wang & Aiyi Song, 2020. "A Hybrid System Based on LSTM for Short-Term Power Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-32, November.
    4. Yang, Dongchuan & Guo, Ju-e & Sun, Shaolong & Han, Jing & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "An interval decomposition-ensemble approach with data-characteristic-driven reconstruction for short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    5. Wang, Cong & Zhang, Hongli & Fan, Wenhui & Ma, Ping, 2017. "A new chaotic time series hybrid prediction method of wind power based on EEMD-SE and full-parameters continued fraction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 977-990.
    6. Xin Gao & Xiaobing Li & Bing Zhao & Weijia Ji & Xiao Jing & Yang He, 2019. "Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Model Based on EMD-GRU with Feature Selection," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Mengran Zhou & Tianyu Hu & Kai Bian & Wenhao Lai & Feng Hu & Oumaima Hamrani & Ziwei Zhu, 2021. "Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Grey Wolf Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-17, August.
    8. Krishna Kumar Gupta & Kanak Kalita & Ranjan Kumar Ghadai & Manickam Ramachandran & Xiao-Zhi Gao, 2021. "Machine Learning-Based Predictive Modelling of Biodiesel Production—A Comparative Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Yu, Enbo & Xu, Guoji & Han, Yan & Li, Yongle, 2022. "An efficient short-term wind speed prediction model based on cross-channel data integration and attention mechanisms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    10. Wu, Shuen-De & Wu, Chiu-Wen & Humeau-Heurtier, Anne, 2016. "Refined scale-dependent permutation entropy to analyze systems complexity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 450(C), pages 454-461.
    11. Yan Ren & Linlin Zhang & Jiangtao Chen & Jinwei Liu & Pan Liu & Ruoyu Qiao & Xianhe Yao & Shangchen Hou & Xiaokai Li & Chunyong Cao & Hongping Chen, 2022. "Noise Reduction Study of Pressure Pulsation in Pumped Storage Units Based on Sparrow Optimization VMD Combined with SVD," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-18, March.
    12. Md Jamal Ahmed Shohan & Md Omar Faruque & Simon Y. Foo, 2022. "Forecasting of Electric Load Using a Hybrid LSTM-Neural Prophet Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-18, March.
    13. Krishna Rayi, Vijaya & Mishra, S.P. & Naik, Jyotirmayee & Dash, P.K., 2022. "Adaptive VMD based optimized deep learning mixed kernel ELM autoencoder for single and multistep wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kaiyan Wang & Haodong Du & Jiao Wang & Rong Jia & Zhenyu Zong, 2023. "An Ensemble Deep Learning Model for Provincial Load Forecasting Based on Reduced Dimensional Clustering and Decomposition Strategies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-20, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hua Li & Zhen Wang & Binbin Shan & Lingling Li, 2022. "Research on Multi-Step Prediction of Short-Term Wind Power Based on Combination Model and Error Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-21, November.
    2. Taorong Jia & Lixiao Yao & Guoqing Yang & Qi He, 2022. "A Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Method of Based on the CEEMDAN-MVO-GRU," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Shichao Huang & Jing Zhang & Yu He & Xiaofan Fu & Luqin Fan & Gang Yao & Yongjun Wen, 2022. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on the CEEMDAN-Sample Entropy-BPNN-Transformer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-14, May.
    4. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    5. Fanidhar Dewangan & Almoataz Y. Abdelaziz & Monalisa Biswal, 2023. "Load Forecasting Models in Smart Grid Using Smart Meter Information: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-55, January.
    6. Yan Hong & Ding Wang & Jingming Su & Maowei Ren & Wanqiu Xu & Yuhao Wei & Zhen Yang, 2023. "Short-Term Power Load Forecasting in Three Stages Based on CEEMDAN-TGA Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-28, July.
    7. Yixiang Ma & Lean Yu & Guoxing Zhang, 2022. "A Hybrid Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on a Multi-Trait-Driven Methodology and Secondary Decomposition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-20, August.
    8. Xiaoyu Gao & Chengying Qi & Guixiang Xue & Jiancai Song & Yahui Zhang & Shi-ang Yu, 2020. "Forecasting the Heat Load of Residential Buildings with Heat Metering Based on CEEMDAN-SVR," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-19, November.
    9. Deng, Juntao & Pan, Shijia & Zhou, Mingu & Gao, Wen & Yan, Yuncai & Niu, Zijie & Han, Wenting, 2023. "Optimum sampling window size and vegetation index selection for low-altitude multispectral estimation of root soil moisture content for Xuxiang Kiwifruit," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    10. Dong, Ming & Shi, Jian & Shi, Qingxin, 2020. "Multi-year long-term load forecast for area distribution feeders based on selective sequence learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    11. Kailai Ni & Jianzhou Wang & Guangyu Tang & Danxiang Wei, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network for Electricity Load Forecasting: A Case Study in Australia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-30, June.
    12. Bartłomiej Mroczek & Paweł Pijarski, 2022. "Machine Learning in Operating of Low Voltage Future Grid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-30, July.
    13. Dinggao Liu & Zhenpeng Tang & Yi Cai, 2022. "A Hybrid Model for China’s Soybean Spot Price Prediction by Integrating CEEMDAN with Fuzzy Entropy Clustering and CNN-GRU-Attention," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, November.
    14. Hao Wang & Chen Peng & Bolin Liao & Xinwei Cao & Shuai Li, 2023. "Wind Power Forecasting Based on WaveNet and Multitask Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-22, July.
    15. Wuyue An & Lin Wang & Dongfeng Zhang, 2023. "Comprehensive commodity price forecasting framework using text mining methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1865-1888, November.
    16. Akash Kumar & Bing Yan & Ace Bilton, 2022. "Machine Learning-Based Load Forecasting for Nanogrid Peak Load Cost Reduction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-23, September.
    17. Xiao, Yulong & Zou, Chongzhe & Chi, Hetian & Fang, Rengcun, 2023. "Boosted GRU model for short-term forecasting of wind power with feature-weighted principal component analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    18. Deka, Bhabesh & Deka, Dipen, 2022. "An improved multiscale distribution entropy for analyzing complexity of real-world signals," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    19. Zhu, Jizhong & Dong, Hanjiang & Zheng, Weiye & Li, Shenglin & Huang, Yanting & Xi, Lei, 2022. "Review and prospect of data-driven techniques for load forecasting in integrated energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    20. Grzegorz Dudek, 2022. "A Comprehensive Study of Random Forest for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-19, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:4:p:2941-:d:1059533. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.