IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i7p3624-d523515.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Vulnerability Assessment for Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Systems of Gamasa Ras El Bar Area, Nile Delta, Egypt

Author

Listed:
  • Ibrahim A. Elshinnawy

    (Costal Research Institute (CoRI), National Water Research Center (NWRC), Behind 15, El-Pharaana Street, El SHalalaat, Alexandria 21514, Egypt)

  • Abdulrazak H. Almaliki

    (Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, Taif 21044, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

The objective of the current study was to assess the vulnerability of coastal systems to sea level rise (SLR) impacts in the Gamasa Ras El Bar area, which is one of the most vulnerable coastal areas in the Nile delta, Egypt. To achieve the study objective, a field campaign was carried out to investigate, measure and collect data. These data, as well as historical data, were analyzed to identify projected inundation areas, erosion and accretion rates, shoreline changes, wave climate and saltwater intrusion, as well as drainage infrastructure efficiency. The results of a 73-cm SLR, projected up to the end of current century in the study area, indicate the following. Inundation areas will be about 2.16% of the study area. Although the significant wave height increased by 3.1 cm per year from 1999 to 2010, the results are indicative and might be taken into consideration in future coastal management plans. The expected variation in groundwater heads due to sea level rise will lead to an increase in groundwater heads ranging from 0 to 0.5 m above the current level. The change expected in groundwater will lead to saltwater intrusion by 1 km landward. The analysis of our results showed that about 271 km 2 (60%) of the area under study will be negatively affected by rising groundwater. This area is occupied by about 70% of the localities in the study area. The analysis of the projected groundwater level rise showed that it will increase the discharges of the sub-drainage system by about 10% of the current rates and less than 1.2% for the open system. It is concluded that the drainage system has the sub-capacity to host the expected increase in drainage discharges without any modifications of the cross-sectional area of most of the drains. In addition, the coastal groundwater aquifer was found to be the most vulnerable system in the study area.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim A. Elshinnawy & Abdulrazak H. Almaliki, 2021. "Vulnerability Assessment for Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Systems of Gamasa Ras El Bar Area, Nile Delta, Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:7:p:3624-:d:523515
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/7/3624/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/7/3624/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Omran Frihy & Mahmoud El-Sayed, 2013. "Vulnerability risk assessment and adaptation to climate change induced sea level rise along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(8), pages 1215-1237, December.
    2. Dasgupta, Susmita & Laplante, Benoit & Meisner, Craig & Wheeler, David & Jianping Yan, 2007. "The impact of sea level rise on developing countries : a comparative analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4136, The World Bank.
    3. M. El-Raey & KR. Dewidar & M. El-Hattab, 1999. "Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in Egypt," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 343-361, September.
    4. O.E. Frihy, 2003. "The Nile delta-Alexandria coast: vulnerability to sea-level rise, consequences and adaptation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 115-138, June.
    5. Aimée B. A. Slangen & John A. Church & Cecile Agosta & Xavier Fettweis & Ben Marzeion & Kristin Richter, 2016. "Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 701-705, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rania A. Bekheet & Mohamed El Raey & Alaa-El-Din Yassin, 2017. "The crestline approach for assessing the development of coastal flooding due to sea level rise," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(7), pages 1113-1130, October.
    2. Mamdouh M El-Hattab & Soha A Mohamed, 2018. "Assesses the Resilience Index to Sea Level Rise Risk of Alexandria Governorate, Egypt," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 12(4), pages 85-93, June.
    3. Tewodros Negash Kahsay & Onno Kuik & Roy Brouwer & Pieter Van Der Zaag, 2017. "The Economy-Wide Impacts Of Climate Change And Irrigation Development In The Nile Basin: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-30, February.
    4. Pablo Fraile-Jurado & José I. Álvarez-Francoso & Emilia Guisado-Pintado & Noela Sánchez-Carnero & José Ojeda-Zújar & Stephen P. Leatherman, 2017. "Mapping inundation probability due to increasing sea level rise along El Puerto de Santa María (SW Spain)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(2), pages 581-598, June.
    5. Ernest Molua, 2012. "Climate extremes, location vulnerability and private costs of property protection in Southwestern Cameroon," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 293-310, March.
    6. Gómez, O.A., 2013. "Climate change and migration," ISS Working Papers - General Series 50161, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    7. Omran Frihy & Mahmoud El-Sayed, 2013. "Vulnerability risk assessment and adaptation to climate change induced sea level rise along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(8), pages 1215-1237, December.
    8. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    9. B. Sudhakara Reddy & Gaudenz B. Assenza, 2008. "The Great climate debate : A Developing country perspective," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-008, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    10. Kwasi Appeaning Addo, 2015. "Monitoring sea level rise-induced hazards along the coast of Accra in Ghana," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(2), pages 1293-1307, September.
    11. Julian David Hunt & Edward Byers, 2019. "Reducing sea level rise with submerged barriers and dams in Greenland," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 779-794, June.
    12. P. Ward & M. Marfai & F. Yulianto & D. Hizbaron & J. Aerts, 2011. "Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 899-916, March.
    13. Fant, Charles & Gebretsadik, Yohannes & Strzepek, Kenneth, 2012. "Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation, Crops and Hydropower in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 079, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Alexis S. Pascaris & Joshua M. Pearce, 2020. "U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emission Bottlenecks: Prioritization of Targets for Climate Liability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-28, August.
    15. Rong, Fang, 2010. "Understanding developing country stances on post-2012 climate change negotiations: Comparative analysis of Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4582-4591, August.
    16. Kousky, Carolyn & Rostapshova, Olga & Toman, Michael & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2009. "Responding to threats of climate change mega-catastrophes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5127, The World Bank.
    17. Matthias Garschagen, 2013. "Resilience and organisational institutionalism from a cross-cultural perspective: an exploration based on urban climate change adaptation in Vietnam," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(1), pages 25-46, May.
    18. Ben S. Hague & Andy J. Taylor, 2021. "Tide-only inundation: a metric to quantify the contribution of tides to coastal inundation under sea-level rise," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 675-695, May.
    19. Schliephack, Johanna & Dickinson, Janet E., 2017. "Tourists’ representations of coastal managed realignment as a climate change adaptation strategy," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 182-192.
    20. Klaus Desmet & Robert E. Kopp & Scott A. Kulp & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Michael Oppenheimer & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2021. "Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 444-486, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:7:p:3624-:d:523515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.