IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i20p11275-d655013.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projected Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of a Vulnerable Endemic Vachellia negrii (pic.serm.) kyal. & Boatwr (Fabaceae) in Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Arayaselassie Abebe Semu

    (Department of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa 1176, Ethiopia
    Range Ecology and Biodiversity Program, College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa 3000, Ethiopia)

  • Tamrat Bekele

    (Department of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa 1176, Ethiopia)

  • Ermias Lulekal

    (Department of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa 1176, Ethiopia)

  • Paloma Cariñanos

    (Andalusian Institute for Earth System Research (IISTA-CEAMA), 18002 Granada, Spain
    Department of Botany, University of Granada, 18002 Granada, Spain)

  • Sileshi Nemomissa

    (Department of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa 1176, Ethiopia)

Abstract

Species tend to shift their suitable habitat both altitudinally and latitudinally under climate change. Range shift in plants brings about habitat contraction at rear edges, forcing leading edge populations to explore newly available suitable habitats. In order to detect these scenarios, modeling of the future geographical distribution of the species is widely used. Vachellia negrii (Pic.-Serm.) Kyal. & Boatwr. is endemic to Ethiopia and was assessed as vulnerable due to changes to its habitat by anthropogenic impacts. It occurs in upland wooded grassland from 2000–3100 m.a.s.l. The main objective of this study is to model the distribution of Vachellia negrii in Ethiopia by using Maxent under climate change. Nineteen bioclimatic variables were downloaded from an open source. Furthermore, topographic position index (tpi), solar radiation index (sri) and elevation were used. Two representative concentration pathways were selected (RCP 4.5 and RC P8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070 using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM 5). A correlation analysis of the bioclimatic variables has resulted in the retention of 10 bioclimatic variables for modeling. Forty-eight occurrence points were collected from herbarium specimens. The area under curve (AUC) is 0.94, indicating a high-performance level of the model. The distribution of the species is affected by elevation (26.4%), precipitation of the driest month (Bio 14, 21.7%), solar radiation (12.9%) and precipitation seasonality (Bio15, 12.2%). Whereas the RCP 8.5 has resulted in decrease of suitable areas of the species from the current 4,314,153.94 ha (3.80%) to 4,059,150.90 ha (3.58%) in 2050, this area will shrink to 3,555,828.71 ha in 2070 under the same scenario. As climate change severely affects the environment, highly suitable areas for the growth of the study subject will decrease by 758,325 ha. The study’s results shows that this vulnerable, endemic species is facing habitat contraction and requires interventions to ensure its long-term persistence.

Suggested Citation

  • Arayaselassie Abebe Semu & Tamrat Bekele & Ermias Lulekal & Paloma Cariñanos & Sileshi Nemomissa, 2021. "Projected Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of a Vulnerable Endemic Vachellia negrii (pic.serm.) kyal. & Boatwr (Fabaceae) in Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:20:p:11275-:d:655013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/20/11275/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/20/11275/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pecchi, Matteo & Marchi, Maurizio & Burton, Vanessa & Giannetti, Francesca & Moriondo, Marco & Bernetti, Iacopo & Bindi, Marco & Chirici, Gherardo, 2019. "Species distribution modelling to support forest management. A literature review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 411(C).
    2. Godfrey Hewitt, 2000. "The genetic legacy of the Quaternary ice ages," Nature, Nature, vol. 405(6789), pages 907-913, June.
    3. Dandan Zhao & Hong S. He & Wen J. Wang & Lei Wang & Haibo Du & Kai Liu & Shengwei Zong, 2018. "Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, March.
    4. Ranjitkar, Sailesh & Xu, Jianchu & Shrestha, Krishna Kumar & Kindt, Roeland, 2014. "Ensemble forecast of climate suitability for the Trans-Himalayan Nyctaginaceae species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 282(C), pages 18-24.
    5. Romain Bertrand & Jonathan Lenoir & Christian Piedallu & Gabriela Riofrío-Dillon & Patrice de Ruffray & Claude Vidal & Jean-Claude Pierrat & Jean-Claude Gégout, 2011. "Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland forests," Nature, Nature, vol. 479(7374), pages 517-520, November.
    6. Schmidt, Heiko & Radinger, Johannes & Teschlade, Daniel & Stoll, Stefan, 2020. "The role of spatial units in modelling freshwater fish distributions: Comparing a subcatchment and river network approach using MaxEnt," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 418(C).
    7. H. Oğuz Çoban & Ömer K. Örücü & E. Seda Arslan, 2020. "MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, March.
    8. Shcheglovitova, Mariya & Anderson, Robert P., 2013. "Estimating optimal complexity for ecological niche models: A jackknife approach for species with small sample sizes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 269(C), pages 9-17.
    9. Vincent Devictor & Chris van Swaay & Tom Brereton & Lluís Brotons & Dan Chamberlain & Janne Heliölä & Sergi Herrando & Romain Julliard & Mikko Kuussaari & Åke Lindström & Jiří Reif & David B. Roy & Ol, 2012. "Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(2), pages 121-124, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. H. Oğuz Çoban & Ömer K. Örücü & E. Seda Arslan, 2020. "MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Özgür Kamer Aksoy, 2022. "Predicting the Potential Distribution Area of the Platanus orientalis L. in Turkey Today and in the Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-18, September.
    3. De Cubber, Lola & Trenkel, Verena M. & Diez, Guzman & Gil-Herrera, Juan & Novoa Pabon, Ana Maria & Eme, David & Lorance, Pascal, 2023. "Robust identification of potential habitats of a rare demersal species (blackspot seabream) in the Northeast Atlantic," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 477(C).
    4. Marcelo Leon & Gino Cornejo & Micaela Calderón & Erika González-Carrión & Hector Florez, 2022. "Effect of Deforestation on Climate Change: A Co-Integration and Causality Approach with Time Series," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-14, September.
    5. Ilaria Bernabò & Viviana Cittadino & Sandro Tripepi & Vittoria Marchianò & Sandro Piazzini & Maurizio Biondi & Mattia Iannella, 2022. "Updating Distribution, Ecology, and Hotspots for Three Amphibian Species to Set Conservation Priorities in a European Glacial Refugium," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Silvia Marková & Hayley C. Lanier & Marco A. Escalante & Marcos O. R. Cruz & Michaela Horníková & Mateusz Konczal & Lawrence J. Weider & Jeremy B. Searle & Petr Kotlík, 2023. "Local adaptation and future climate vulnerability in a wild rodent," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Amaro, George & Fidelis, Elisangela Gomes & da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira & Marchioro, Cesar Augusto, 2023. "Effect of study area extent on the potential distribution of Species: A case study with models for Raoiella indica Hirst (Acari: Tenuipalpidae)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 483(C).
    8. Silu Wang & Madelyn J. Ore & Else K. Mikkelsen & Julie Lee-Yaw & David P. L. Toews & Sievert Rohwer & Darren Irwin, 2021. "Signatures of mitonuclear coevolution in a warbler species complex," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Srivastava, Vivek & Carroll, Allan L., 2023. "Dynamic distribution modelling using a native invasive species, the mountain pine beetle," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 482(C).
    10. Erickson, Adam & Nitschke, Craig & Coops, Nicholas & Cumming, Steven & Stenhouse, Gordon, 2015. "Past-century decline in forest regeneration potential across a latitudinal and elevational gradient in Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 94-102.
    11. Yang Yi & Mingchang Shi & Jialin Liu & Chen Zhang & Xiaoding Yi & Sha Li & Chunyang Chen & Liangzhao Lin, 2022. "Spatial Distribution of Precise Suitability of Plantation: A Case Study of Main Coniferous Forests in Hubei Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, May.
    12. Valentina Lucia Astrid Laface & Carmelo Maria Musarella & Gianmarco Tavilla & Agostino Sorgonà & Ana Cano-Ortiz & Ricardo Quinto Canas & Giovanni Spampinato, 2023. "Current and Potential Future Distribution of Endemic Salvia ceratophylloides Ard. (Lamiaceae)," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.
    13. Bruce G. Marcot & Anca M. Hanea, 2021. "What is an optimal value of k in k-fold cross-validation in discrete Bayesian network analysis?," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 2009-2031, September.
    14. Holder, Anna M. & Markarian, Arev & Doyle, Jessie M. & Olson, John R., 2020. "Predicting geographic distributions of fishes in remote stream networks using maximum entropy modeling and landscape characterizations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 433(C).
    15. Zeng, Yiwen & Low, Bi Wei & Yeo, Darren C.J., 2016. "Novel methods to select environmental variables in MaxEnt: A case study using invasive crayfish," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 341(C), pages 5-13.
    16. Albert Ayorinde Abegunde, 2017. "Local communities’ belief in climate change in a rural region of Sub-Saharan Africa," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1489-1522, August.
    17. Boyang Liu & Xiang Gao & Jun Ma & Zhihui Jiao & Jianhua Xiao & Hongbin Wang, 2018. "Influence of Host and Environmental Factors on the Distribution of the Japanese Encephalitis Vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-15, August.
    18. Matthew Chard & Kris French & John Martin & Richard E Major, 2018. "Rain drives foraging decisions of an urban exploiter," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(4), pages 1-14, April.
    19. Sara J. Germain & James A. Lutz, 2020. "Climate extremes may be more important than climate means when predicting species range shifts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 579-598, November.
    20. Moreno-Amat, Elena & Mateo, Rubén G. & Nieto-Lugilde, Diego & Morueta-Holme, Naia & Svenning, Jens-Christian & García-Amorena, Ignacio, 2015. "Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 312(C), pages 308-317.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:20:p:11275-:d:655013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.