IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i20p11253-d654564.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

Author

Listed:
  • Zhen Cao

    (School of Pharmacy, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710061, China
    Shaanxi Traditional Chinese Medicine Extracts Engineering Technology Research Center, Xi’an 710061, China
    Shaanxi Key Laboratory of “Qiyao” Resources and Anti-Tumor Activities, Xi’an 710061, China)

  • Lei Zhang

    (School of Pharmacy, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710061, China
    Shaanxi Traditional Chinese Medicine Extracts Engineering Technology Research Center, Xi’an 710061, China
    Shaanxi Key Laboratory of “Qiyao” Resources and Anti-Tumor Activities, Xi’an 710061, China)

  • Xinxin Zhang

    (School of Pharmacy, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710061, China
    Shaanxi Traditional Chinese Medicine Extracts Engineering Technology Research Center, Xi’an 710061, China
    Shaanxi Key Laboratory of “Qiyao” Resources and Anti-Tumor Activities, Xi’an 710061, China)

  • Zengjun Guo

    (School of Pharmacy, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710061, China
    Shaanxi Traditional Chinese Medicine Extracts Engineering Technology Research Center, Xi’an 710061, China
    Shaanxi Key Laboratory of “Qiyao” Resources and Anti-Tumor Activities, Xi’an 710061, China)

Abstract

Hylomecon japonica is considered a natural medicinal plant with anti-inflammatory, anticancer and antibacterial activity. The assessment of climate change impact on its habitat suitability is important for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica . In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the current and future distribution of H. japonica species, and the contributions of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 102 occurrence records. The predicted potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Henan, Heilongjiang and other provinces (adaptability index > 0.6). The jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (40.5%), mean annual temperature (12.4%), the precipitation of wettest quarter (11.6%) and the subclass of soil (9.7%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica . In the future, only under the shared socioeconomic Pathway 245 (SSP 245) scenario model in 2061–2080, the suitable habitat area for H. japonica is expected to show a significant upward trend. The area under other scenarios may not increase or decrease significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhen Cao & Lei Zhang & Xinxin Zhang & Zengjun Guo, 2021. "Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-14, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:20:p:11253-:d:654564
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/20/11253/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/20/11253/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Su-Yuan & Miao, Li-Juan & Jiang, Zhi-Hong & Wang, Guo-Jie & Gnyawali, Kaushal Raj & Zhang, Jing & Zhang, Hui & Fang, Ke & He, Yu & Li, Chun, 2020. "Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015–2099," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 210-217.
    2. Yining Ma & Xiaoling Lu & Kaiwei Li & Chunyi Wang & Ari Guna & Jiquan Zhang, 2021. "Prediction of Potential Geographical Distribution Patterns of Actinidia arguta under Different Climate Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Terry L. Root & Jeff T. Price & Kimberly R. Hall & Stephen H. Schneider & Cynthia Rosenzweig & J. Alan Pounds, 2003. "Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 57-60, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mayeul Dalleau & Stéphane Ciccione & Jeanne A Mortimer & Julie Garnier & Simon Benhamou & Jérôme Bourjea, 2012. "Nesting Phenology of Marine Turtles: Insights from a Regional Comparative Analysis on Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-13, October.
    2. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    3. Fabina, Nicholas S. & Abbott, Karen C. & Gilman, R.Tucker, 2010. "Sensitivity of plant–pollinator–herbivore communities to changes in phenology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 453-458.
    4. Brandt, Laura A. & Benscoter, Allison M. & Harvey, Rebecca & Speroterra, Carolina & Bucklin, David & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Watling, James I. & Mazzotti, Frank J., 2017. "Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 10-20.
    5. Annie Paradis & Joe Elkinton & Katharine Hayhoe & John Buonaccorsi, 2008. "Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in eastern North America," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 541-554, June.
    6. Emiliano Mori & Andrea Sforzi & Giuseppe Bogliani & Pietro Milanesi, 2018. "Range expansion and redefinition of a crop-raiding rodent associated with global warming and temperature increase," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 319-331, October.
    7. William O Hobbs & Richard J Telford & H John B Birks & Jasmine E Saros & Roderick R O Hazewinkel & Bianca B Perren & Émilie Saulnier-Talbot & Alexander P Wolfe, 2010. "Quantifying Recent Ecological Changes in Remote Lakes of North America and Greenland Using Sediment Diatom Assemblages," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(4), pages 1-12, April.
    8. Yingjie Niu & Zhentao Zou, 2024. "Robust Abatement Policy with Uncertainty About Environmental Disasters," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(4), pages 933-965, April.
    9. Selvaraj Krishnan & Subhash Chander, 2015. "Simulation of climatic change impact on crop-pest interactions: a case study of rice pink stem borer Sesamia inferens (Walker)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(2), pages 259-272, July.
    10. Singer, Alexander & Johst, Karin & Banitz, Thomas & Fowler, Mike S. & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Hartig, Florian & Krug, Rainer M. & Liess, Matthias & Matlack, Glenn & Meyer, Katrin M, 2016. "Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 63-74.
    11. Tieniu Wu & Huaqing Wu & Henry Lin & Tiantian Yang & Xiaoyang Wu & Yi Jie & Pei Tian, 2020. "Climate Change and Vegetation Evolution during the Transition from Marine Isotope Stage 5 to 4 Based on Two Typical Profiles at the Southern Chinese Loess Plateau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    12. Disha Sachan & Pankaj Kumar & Md. Saquib Saharwardi, 2022. "Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-19, August.
    13. Rashwan, Sherif S. & Ibrahim, Abdelmaged H. & Abou-Arab, Tharwat W. & Nemitallah, Medhat A. & Habib, Mohamed A., 2017. "Experimental study of atmospheric partially premixed oxy-combustion flames anchored over a perforated plate burner," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 159-167.
    14. William Nikolakis & Quentin Grafton, 2011. "Are there incentives to integrate to land and water management across northern Australia?," Environmental Economics Research Hub Research Reports 10109, Environmental Economics Research Hub, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Ferenc L. Toth & Eva Hizsnyik, 2005. "Managing The Inconceivable: Participatory Assessments Of Impacts And Responses To Extreme Climate Change," Working Papers FNU-74, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2005.
    16. Víctor Rincón & Javier Velázquez & Derya Gülçin & Aida López-Sánchez & Carlos Jiménez & Ali Uğur Özcan & Juan Carlos López-Almansa & Tomás Santamaría & Daniel Sánchez-Mata & Kerim Çiçek, 2023. "Mapping Priority Areas for Connectivity of Yellow-Winged Darter ( Sympetrum flaveolum , Linnaeus 1758) under Climate Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-39, January.
    17. Lucie Kuczynski & Mathieu Chevalier & Pascal Laffaille & Marion Legrand & Gaël Grenouillet, 2017. "Indirect effect of temperature on fish population abundances through phenological changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, April.
    18. Subhra Sekhar Maity & Rajib Maity, 2022. "Changing Pattern of Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationship of Precipitation due to Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(14), pages 5371-5399, November.
    19. Marco Archetti & Andrew D Richardson & John O'Keefe & Nicolas Delpierre, 2013. "Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Amount and Duration of Autumn Colors in a New England Forest," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(3), pages 1-8, March.
    20. Sébastien Nusslé & Kathleen R Matthews & Stephanie M Carlson, 2015. "Mediating Water Temperature Increases Due to Livestock and Global Change in High Elevation Meadow Streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:20:p:11253-:d:654564. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.