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Hindcasting and Forecasting Total Suspended Sediment Concentrations Using a NARX Neural Network

Author

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  • Vladimir J. Alarcon

    (Civil Engineering Department, Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago 8370191, Chile)

Abstract

Estimating and forecasting suspended sediments concentrations in streams constitutes a valuable asset for sustainable land management. This research presents the development of a non-linear autoregressive exogenous neural network (NARX) for forecasting sediment concentrations at the exit of Francia Creek watershed (Valparaiso, Chile). Details are presented on input data selection, data splitting, selection of model architecture, determination of model structure, NARX training (optimization of model parameters), and model validation (hindcasting and forecasting). The study explored if the developed artificial neural network model is valid for forecasting daily suspended sediment concentrations for a complete year, capturing seasonal trends, and maximum and baseflow concentrations. Francia Creek watershed covers approximately 3.24 km 2 . Land cover within the catchment consists mainly of native and exotic vegetation, eroded soil, and urban areas. Input data consisting of precipitation and stream flow time-series were fed to a NARX network for forecasting daily suspended sediments (SST) concentrations for years 2013–2014, and hindcasting for years 2008–2010. Training of the network was performed with daily SST, precipitation, and flow data from years 2012 and 2013. The resulting NARX net consisted of an open-loop, 12-node hidden layer, 100 iterations, using Bayesian regularization backpropagation. Hindcasting of daily and monthly SST concentrations for years 2008 through 2010 was successful. Daily SST concentrations for years 2013 and 2014 were forecasted successfully for baseflow conditions (R 2 = 0.73, NS = 0.71, and Kling-Gupta efficiency index (K-G) = 0.84). Forecasting daily SST concentrations for year 2014 was within acceptable statistical fit and error margins (R 2 = 0.53, NS = 0.47, K-G = 0.60, d = 0.82). Forecasting of monthly maximum SST concentrations for the two-year period (2013 and 2014) was also successful (R 2 = 0.69, NS = 0.60, K-G = 0.54, d = 0.84).

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir J. Alarcon, 2021. "Hindcasting and Forecasting Total Suspended Sediment Concentrations Using a NARX Neural Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:363-:d:474079
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vanessa Sari & Nilza Maria Reis Castro & Olavo Correa Pedrollo, 2017. "Estimate of Suspended Sediment Concentration from Monitored Data of Turbidity and Water Level Using Artificial Neural Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(15), pages 4909-4923, December.
    2. Jaime Buitrago & Shihab Asfour, 2017. "Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Vector Inputs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, January.
    3. Vladimir J. Alarcon & Gretchen F. Sassenrath, 2017. "Nitrate, Total Ammonia, and Total Suspended Sediments Modeling for the Mobile River Watershed," International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems (IJAEIS), IGI Global, vol. 8(2), pages 20-31, April.
    4. Zina Boussaada & Octavian Curea & Ahmed Remaci & Haritza Camblong & Najiba Mrabet Bellaaj, 2018. "A Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Neural Network Model for the Prediction of the Daily Direct Solar Radiation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-21, March.
    5. V. Alarcon & D. Johnson & W. McAnally & J. Zwaag & D. Irby & J. Cartwright, 2014. "Nested Hydrodynamic Modeling of a Coastal River Applying Dynamic-Coupling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 3227-3240, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan D. Borrero & Jesús Mariscal & Alfonso Vargas-Sánchez, 2022. "A New Predictive Algorithm for Time Series Forecasting Based on Machine Learning Techniques: Evidence for Decision Making in Agriculture and Tourism Sectors," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-14, November.
    2. Fernando Esteban Mardonez Meza & Vladimir J. Alarcon, 2023. "Management scenarios for reducing waterlogging hazard in Valparaiso, Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(2), pages 1463-1485, September.

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