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Landscape Characteristics and Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Multi-Scenario Simulations: A Case Study of Yancheng Coastal Wetland, China

Author

Listed:
  • Peng Tian

    (Department of Geography & Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China)

  • Luodan Cao

    (Department of Geography & Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China)

  • Jialin Li

    (Department of Geography & Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China
    Donghai Institute, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China
    Collaborative Innovation Center for Land and Marine Spatial Utilization and Governance Research, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China)

  • Ruiliang Pu

    (School of Geosciences, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620-5250, USA)

  • Hongbo Gong

    (School of Law, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China)

  • Changda Li

    (Marine and Fishery Development Research Center of Dongtou District, Wenzhou 325799, China)

Abstract

Carrying out coastal wetland landscape simulations and current and future ecological risk assessments is conducive to formulating policies for coastal wetland landscape planning and promoting the coordinated development of the social economy and ecological environment. This study used the Cellular Automaton (CA)-Markov model to simulate the landscape data of the study area under different scenarios in 2021 and 2025, and built an ecological risk assessment (ERS) index model to analyze the differences of spatio-temporal characteristics of ecological risks. The results showed that: (1) The test accuracy of the CA–Markov model was 0.9562 after passing through the consistency test. The spatial distribution data of landscapes under current utilization scenarios (CUSs), natural development scenarios (NDSs), and ecological protection scenarios (EPSs) were gained through simulations. (2) During 1991–2025, the landscape types of Yancheng coastal wetlands undertake complicated transfers and have vast transfer regions. Under CUSs and NDSs, a large number of natural wetlands are transferred to artificial wetlands. Under EPSs, the area of artificial wetlands declines and artificial wetlands are mainly transferred to natural wetlands. (3) The ecological risk of Yancheng Coastal Wetland increases, accompanied with significant spatial heterogeneity, which is manifested as low in the north area and high in the south area, and there exist some differences between sea areas and land areas. Ecological risk levels transfer violently.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng Tian & Luodan Cao & Jialin Li & Ruiliang Pu & Hongbo Gong & Changda Li, 2020. "Landscape Characteristics and Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Multi-Scenario Simulations: A Case Study of Yancheng Coastal Wetland, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2020:i:1:p:149-:d:468470
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rahel Hamad & Heiko Balzter & Kamal Kolo, 2018. "Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, September.
    2. Carlson, Matt & Browne, David & Callaghan, Carolyn, 2019. "Application of land-use simulation to protected area selection for efficient avoidance of biodiversity loss in Canada’s western boreal region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 821-831.
    3. Peng Tian & Jialin Li & Hongbo Gong & Ruiliang Pu & Luodan Cao & Shuyao Shao & Zuoqi Shi & Xiuli Feng & Lijia Wang & Riuqing Liu, 2019. "Research on Land Use Changes and Ecological Risk Assessment in Yongjiang River Basin in Zhejiang Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, May.
    4. Topping, Christopher J. & Dalby, Lars & Valdez, Jose W., 2019. "Landscape-scale simulations as a tool in multi-criteria decision making to support agri-environment schemes," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    5. Jialin Li & Ruiliang Pu & Hongbo Gong & Xu Luo & Mengyao Ye & Baixiang Feng, 2017. "Evolution Characteristics of Landscape Ecological Risk Patterns in Coastal Zones in Zhejiang Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-18, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pengnan Xiao & Jie Xu & Chong Zhao, 2022. "Conflict Identification and Zoning Optimization of “Production-Living-Ecological” Space," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-27, June.

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