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Spatial Big Data Analysis of Political Risks along the Belt and Road

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  • Chuchu Zhang

    (School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
    Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this study.)

  • Chaowei Xiao

    (Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this study.)

  • Helin Liu

    (School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
    Smart Planning and Design Collaborative Innovation Research Center, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
    Hubei New Urbanization Engineering Technology Research Center, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

Abstract

As many regions along the Belt and Road have long been struggling with terrorist attacks, crimes, wars, and corruption, political risks pose important challenges for infrastructure projects and transnational investment. The objective of the article is to contribute to the identification of different types of political risks along the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, and the visualization of their micro-level spatial distribution based on the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) datasets from October 2013 to May 2018. By adopting the bivariate Moran’s I model to compare the distribution of political risks along the Belt and Road and that of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investment and construction projects based on data from the China Global Investment Tracker (CGIT), the article also generates an overall political risk profile for Chinese BRI projects. Our findings show that a particularly high percentage of Chinese BRI projects are distributed in regions with high political risks. This research has important implications for the discussion and study of the BRI. First, by combining geographic spatial statistical analysis and political science conceptual frameworks, we point out the necessity to query the BRI from interdisciplinary perspectives grounded in empirical research. Second, the research delivers to researchers, academics, practitioners, consultants and policy makers interested in the BRI the latest insights into the risks and challenges along the Belt and Road. Third, it advocates policies and strategies conducive to identifying, assessing and mitigating political risks in investment along the Belt and Road and to strengthening the sustainable development of the BRI.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuchu Zhang & Chaowei Xiao & Helin Liu, 2019. "Spatial Big Data Analysis of Political Risks along the Belt and Road," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:8:p:2216-:d:222307
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yuren Wang & Yitao Tao, 2024. "The effect of fluctuations in bilateral relations on trade: evidence from China and ASEAN countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Hui Shi & Zhen You & Zhiming Feng & Yanzhao Yang, 2019. "Numerical Simulation and Spatial Distribution of Transportation Accessibility in the Regions Involved in the Belt and Road Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-14, November.
    3. Xiaohui Sun & Jianbo Gao & Bin Liu & Zhenzhen Wang, 2021. "Big Data-Based Assessment of Political Risk along the Belt and Road," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-20, April.
    4. Wei Hu & Yue Shan & Yun Deng & Ningning Fu & Jian Duan & Haining Jiang & Jianzhen Zhang, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk Evolution and Obstacle Factors of Countries along the Belt and Road and Its Types Classification," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-24, January.
    5. Chunjiao Yu & Ren Zhang & Lian An & Zhixing Yu, 2020. "Has China’s Belt and Road Initiative Intensified Bilateral Trade Links between China and the Involved Countries?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Raphael Konde Kazungu & Ayyoob Sharifi, 2023. "Investigating Risks to the Implementation of the Great Equatorial Landbridge (GELB) Highway Project across Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-22, July.
    7. Chunyang Pan & William X. Wei & Etayankara Muralidharan & Jia Liao & Bernadette Andreosso-O’Callaghan, 2020. "Does China’s Outward Direct Investment Improve the Institutional Quality of the Belt and Road Countries?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.

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